MANILA, Philippines — Airlines across Asia, including in the Philippines, should expect the Chinese market to recover to pre-pandemic levels only by 2025.
In an outlook, Centre for Aviation head of analysis Richard Maslen said the Chinese market will sustain recovery in 2024, but noted that a return to 2019 numbers could materialize only in 2025.
This means that economies like the Philippines that used to rely on Chinese arrivals to keep their tourism sector afloat may have to wait another year to climb back to pre-pandemic levels.
A number of factors – both domestic and international – are preventing the Chinese market from making a comeback. For one, Maslen said China’s economy is slow to regain its growth pace as consumers struggle to make earn an income and Beijing is engaged in political conflicts.
“For the Chinese, domestic tourism remains the preferred option. For foreign arrivals, the allure of China has now shrunk,” Maslen said.
Citing a forecast from Oxford Economics, Maslen said outbound trips from China will double in 2024 as compared to last year as airlines increase their flight frequency out of the country.
However, Maslen said this would reach just 80 percent of the 2019 performance, pushing China to the back of the line in terms of travel recovery.
Further, Maslen said the absence of Chinese tourists abroad is particularly felt in Southeast Asia, where countries used to depend on China to pump up their visitor numbers.
In 2019, China served as the second largest origin of foreign visitors for the Philippines. Based on data from the Department of Tourism, the Philippines welcomed 8.26 million tourists during that year, and China accounted for more than a fifth or 1.74 million of the total.
When compared, China deployed 263,836 tourists to the Philippines in 2023, chipping in barely five percent of the visitor arrivals. Even Philippine carriers are doubtful about China’s recovery as they are also slow to reinstate their flights to the country.
Right now, flag carrier Philippine Airlines operates the most flights to China among domestic providers, selling flights to Beijing, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Jinjiang, Macau, Shanghai, Taipei and Xiamen.
Meanwhile, low-cost carrier Cebu Pacific offers regular trips to Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Macau, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Xiamen, but has yet to return to Beijing.