‘Worst may soon be over for ASEAN+3 exports’

MANILA, Philippines — The Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus 3 (ASEAN+3) may soon see their merchandise exports performance improve with exports posting smaller declines, according to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).

“Goods exports remained weak due to muted demand from major trading partners and the global electronics downcycle, but signs of contraction appear to be easing across the region,” AMRO said in a commentary.

AMRO said non-technology exports are declining at a slower pace.

The think tank also said there was a 50 percent year-on-year growth in ASEAN+3 auto exports, partly reflecting the increased demand for durable goods in the US.

AMRO said the region’s service exports are also getting a boost from tourism activity, with most economies at about 80 percent of their 2019 values.

“ASEAN+3 tourist volume is expected to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels next year, as outbound Chinese tourism regains momentum,” AMRO added.

In the Philippines, merchandise export sales inched up by 4.2 percent to $6.7 billion in August from $6.43 billion in the same month last year.

Electronic products remained the country’s top merchandise export in August with total earnings reaching $3.88 billion during the month, six percent higher than the $3.65 billion in the same month in 2022.

The country’s merchandise export earnings in the January to August period, however, were down by 6.6 percent to $47.81 billion from $51.18 billion in the same period last year.

AMRO said it expects a turnaround in trade and improving growth momentum in China to support ASEAN+3’s growth next year.

AMRO is forecasting ASEAN+3 would post 4.3 percent this year, down from its July projection of 4.6 percent, due mainly to the weaker-than-expected growth in China.

For 2024, AMRO expects ASEAN+3 to grow at a faster pace of 4.5 percent, despite an expected weakness in the global economy.