Fed, BSP rate moves on investors’ radar

MANILA, Philippines — Investors will be looking at several factors or leads for the week, including the next policy-rate setting meeting of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Sept. 21, when monetary authorities will decide whether to match or counter the US Federal Reserve rate decision the day before.

According to Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort, the BSP would likely match the move of the Fed “in order to maintain healthy interest rate differentials to support stability of the peso exchange rate, import prices, and overall inflation.”

He said a pause on local policy rates is also a possibility, “especially if the peso exchange rate is relatively stable.”

Future Fed rate decisions would also be an influencing factor “amid the need to further bring down US inflation to the target of two percent,” Ricafort said.

He said Fed rates could plateau later this year if US inflation eases further and consequently, local policy rates would likely match any future Fed rate moves.

On the local front, domestic factors that could affect the market include the latest balance of payments report on Sept. 19; the universal and commercial bank loans expected to be released on Sept. 22 and the latest domestic liquidity data, also on Sept. 22.

Last week, the benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index (PSEi) hit a new 10-month low on the back of rising rice prices and higher-than-expected August inflation.

Likewise, net foreign selling at the local stock market reached $77.4 million wider, compared to $63.2 million recorded the previous week.

Ricafort said he sees the next support level for the PSEi at 6,040, with immediate minor resistance at 6,270 to 6,350 levels, assuming there would be healthy upward correction in the coming trading days or weeks.

2TradeAsia, for its part, said in general, investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the BSP’s upcoming rate-setting decisions as well as from the effect of the August “ghost month” and seasonally weak consumer activities.

It sees immediate support at 6,100, with resistance at 6,300.