The BSP and Mayon Volcano are in suspense

Two unrelated events that have great significance for the country are currently happening at the same time around this time.

The first suspense is at the Bangko Sentral where the next governor of our central bank is yet to be appointed by the President. The term is for a period of six years commencing next month, in July.

The second is the Mayon Volcano eruption that has been spilling a hot lava of magma from its rim since June 11, which the PhilVolcs (Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology) calls “an effusive eruption.” In my layman’s language, it is like lava (boiling rice) falling from the brim of the super-hot rice-stove. Is this a prelude to a bigger eruption?

Suspense At The Central Bank. The Philippine central bank has had a rapid transition of heads with the unexpected demise of Governor Nestor Espenilla in 2019. We recall that Benjamin Diokno, then Budget Secretary, was appointed by former president Rodrigo Duterte to succeed Espenilla’s unfinished term.

When then incoming President Marcos decided to appoint Ben Diokno to head the Finance department, Felipe Medalla was also appointed to the governor’s post at Bangko Sentral.

In his year of stewardship of monetary policy in the country, Felipe Medalla has done a good job as governor and should continue. Aside from having been a former Dean of the UP School of Economics, Philip taught fiscal and monetary economics, and was former director-general of NEDA. His experience as Monetary Board Member before becoming governor eminently qualifies him with experience and institutional memory as well.

Of course, there is suspense at BSP until the new head is formally announced.

Volcano Activities And Eruptions. Mayon Volcano recently displayed unstable behavior. This volcano is the most active of the country’s many volcanoes. In the last 500 years, it has accounted for 52 eruptions.

Quite a number of these eruptions have occurred in more recent memory. The most recent eruptions have been recorded in 1984, 1993, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2006.

Our volcanologists are careful to distinguish between different levels of activities and those they classify as eruptions. This is “best-practice” among those who are responsible for tracking volcanic activity in the world. They do these by a strict classification of the levels of alert to identify serious cases of eruptions.

The alert levels are: level 0 indicates “quiet or no alert”; level 1 “a low level of abnormal volcanic unrest”; level 2, “a moderate level of increasing volcanic unrest”; level 3 “a high level of unrest indicating an increased tendency towards hazardous eruption”; level 4 “a hazardous eruption is imminent”; and level 5 “a hazardous eruption is in progress.

At the moment, Mount Mayon is on level 3 alert, indicating a tendency towards potential hazardous eruption. Will the situation lead to level 4?

The most destructive volcanic eruption in the country (in written history) was that that of Mount Pinatubo. It is still within Philippine living memory of most Filipinos. That eruption was also a high mark in the volcanic history of the world.

The US Geological Survey described it as follows: “The second-largest volcanic eruption of [the 20th] century, and by far the largest eruption to affect a densely populated area, occurred at Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines on June 15, 1991. The eruption produced high-speed avalanches of hot ash and gas, giant mudflows, and a cloud of volcanic ash hundreds of miles across. The impacts of the eruption continue to this day.”

It might be added, however, that Mount Pinatubo is situated in an isolated mountain range of Zambales province. Its explosion was felt most in the neighboring valleys of Pampanga and Tarlac provinces where the human habitats were situated. Luckily, the volcano was not as close to population centers as Taal Volcano in Batangas province or Mount Mayon in Albay province.

Even then, the Pinatubo eruption brought further economic damage on the land to far off areas. The lahars that flowed from the mountains were carried to the spread of the valleys of the land. The economic damage from the eruption was by far large and multi-year in impact.

The Mount Pinatubo eruption also affected the world’s temperature, dropping it to half a degree Centigrade in the following year.

Because our country is geologically located in the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” the land is full of active volcanoes. Taal Volcano is the second most active volcano in the country. Since 1572, it has had 42 eruptions, and of course many other volcanic activities. Mount Bulusan in the province of Sorsogon, which is close to Mount Mayon in the province of Albay, had an eruption only last year in June.

Mount Kanlaon, the volcano in the island of Negros, is one of the active volcanos in the Visayas. On the island of Camiguin island just off northern Mindanao is located Hibok-Hiboc volcano, which also has a history of destructive eruptions.

Some well-known mountain peaks in the country are volcanoes. Mount Apo in Mindanao, our tallest mountain, is an active volcano although it has not known destructive eruption. Mount Makiling in the heart of Laguna province in Luzon is volcanic although it is rated as inactive by PhilVolcs. Mount Arayat, a solitary low peak in the center of Pampanga province is an active volcano.

Volcanos As Assets And As Danger. As a country, our people live with volcanic eruptions in their midst. We are exposed to the economic damage that the eruptions bring. They bring danger to those who live nearby.

But they also provide advantages and benefits if exploited properly. The volcanic soils they bring to the land provide a good basis for agriculture and good livelihood for many.

The beauty of the surroundings of the immediate environment can be properly exploited if the local people use it to advantage: Tourism is one industry that could elevate these communities further, in addition to an improvement of other industries.

For archives of previous Crossroads essays, go to: https://www.philstar.com/authors/1336383/gerardo-p-sicat. Visit this site for more information, feedback and commentary: http://econ.upd.edu.ph/gpsicat/