NGCP warns of tight power supply this summer  

MANILA, Philippines —  The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) has warned of thin power supply this summer due to higher demand.

The power transmission operator, in a statement yesterday, alerted the public of tight power supply during the summer months, with the Department of Energy (DOE) forecasting an increase in peak demand this year.

The DOE has forecasted a total peak demand of 13,125 megawatts for Luzon toward the end of May – an 8.35-percent increase from the actual 2022 peak load of 12,113 MW that occurred on May 12, 2022.

Meanwhile, a 16.19-percent increase in demand is forecasted for Visayas this year at 2,691 MW, while a 10.52 percent jump is expected for Mindanao at 2,395 MW.

Last year, the peak demand occurred in September for Visayas, while in Mindanao, the peak demand occurred in June.

“Thin operating margins (power in excess of demand) from where ancillary services (power used to manage and balance the grid) are taken, are forecasted for this year. For the Luzon grid, these are forecasted from April to June due to the historically high demand during the summer months,” NGCP said.

NGCP said that while base case projections show no occurrence of yellow or red alerts, there are weeks between March and April where operating margins are below required levels due to higher demand and planned outages of plants.

To alleviate possible power shortages, NGCP is appealing to policy makers to immediately explore demand side management strategies to mitigate any possible supply issues in the coming summer months.

NGCP coordinates with the DOE the preparation and submission of an annual grid operating and maintenance program (GOMP), a consolidated preventive maintenance schedule of power plants, with consideration for the needed supply to meet the projected demand.

The 2023 GOMP was approved by the DOE in December last year.

In compliance with the DOE directive, no maintenance shutdowns were scheduled during the summer months, according to NGCP.

“NGCP coordinates with the generation and distribution sectors to optimize and rationalize maintenance schedules to ensure sufficiency, at least on paper, of power supply throughout the year,” the company said.

“Unplanned shutdowns, which are outside of the GOMP, may still have a significant impact on the supply demand profile if, as in the past years, several power plants simultaneously shut down outside of its schedule,” it said.

NGCP said that while the GOMP is formulated to ensure adequacy of supply especially during the critical months, there are instances of forced or unplanned outages of plants that may disrupt the normal operations of the grid and warrant the issuance of yellow or red alerts.

A yellow alert is issued when the operating margin is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s regulating and contingency requirement, which is at 668 MW each.

A red alert status, on the other hand, is issued when supplies are insufficient to meet consumer demand and the transmission grid’s regulating requirement.

“As a transmission service provider, NGCP can only give an overview of the current supply and demand situation, and endeavor to dispatch any and all available grid resources. It cannot intervene on matters concerning power generation,” NGCP said.

NGCP is a Filipino-led, privately owned company in charge of operating, maintaining and developing the country’s power grid.