BBM urged: Lay out full economic plan

MANILA, Philippines — Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., who is poised to be the next president in a landslide win, is being urged to lay out his full plan to address the still struggling economy, as other experts expressed concern over what’s to come in the next six years.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Chua, when asked about the impact of the initial results of the presidential race on the economy, said in a Viber message that he has yet to see the Marcos camp’s full economic plan.

“It’s better he lays out his full economic plan so we can understand,” Chua told The STAR.

Prior to the May polls, economists, analysts and investors were in unison that Vice President Leni Robredo is a better choice given her concrete set of policy proposals to address economic recovery from the pandemic.

Marcos, on the other hand, gave little or no details about his policy direction during the campaign trail and just insisted on the idea of unity.

Chua said if the economic plans were there, “then we would all see it.”

Marcos has yet to float the members of his economic team, a crucial set of officials who will chart the direction of the economy in the next six years.

But Leonardo Lanzona, labor economist and professor at the Ateneo De Manila University, argued that good economics must be backed up by good politics.

“Regardless of who is in the economic team, the economy will falter if the political leadership is weak. As we learned from the dictatorship and (Rodrigo) Duterte, one cannot separate politics from economics,” Lanzona told The STAR.

He said that Marcos’ lack of economic platform would eventually be to the detriment of the country.

“It should offer the voters information on the public goods that the administration is supposed to produce and how much this will cost.  Given the budget constraints we face and the complete silence on all these issues, the efficient allocation of these public goods is unlikely to be accomplished. I would not be surprised if investors suddenly move out of our country,” he said.

On the other hand, the Foundation for Economic Freedom (FEF) disagrees that a Marcos presidency is doomed to fail.

In a separate exchange, FEF president Calixto Chikiamco said Marcos could prove his critics wrong if he builds and expands on the reforms initiated by President Duterte.

“He must build an economic team that will also follow on the policies guiding the Duterte administration: fiscal prudence, economic liberalization, increased infrastructure spending and pro-business policies,” Chikiamco said.

Further, economists Alex Holmes and Gareth Leather of international think tank Capital Economics said that Marcos would do well to follow in Duterte’s footsteps by delegating the management of the economy to competent bureaucrats.

Concerns remain among investors that his election will fuel corruption, nepotism and poor governance.

“Marcos gave away few policy details on the campaign trail. But one thing he is keen to do is resume the Build Build Build infrastructure program of Duterte, which he hopes to expand and improve,” the two economists said.

Holmes and Leather noted that Marcos looks keen to pursue closer ties with Beijings as low interest rate loans from China could help limit the fiscal impact of the infrastructure push.

“But finance has often come with conditions of relying heavily on Chinese contractors, which limits the positive spillovers to the local economy. In any case, Chinese investment is much less likely to be forthcoming than when Duterte attempted a similar pivot,” they said.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort, for his part, said among the factors that would help sustain economic recovery include strengthened institutions, more effective pandemic response, economic reopening, job generation, improving the government’s fiscal position, and increased infrastructure spending, among others.

Offsetting risk factors, however, include volatile global markets, monetary tightening, and higher commodity prices.