Tourist arrivals to remain low in next 2 years

MANILA, Philippines — Foreign arrivals in the country are not likely to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024 under the best possible scenario, the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) said.

Data provided by PATA to The STAR showed that visitor arrivals in the Philippines are expected to reach almost 10 million by 2024 under a mild scenario.

This would mark the return by the country to its pre-pandemic international arrival levels, which stood at 8.26 million in 2019.

Travel and tourism industries were among the sectors hit hard by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

For this year, PATA expects visitor arrivals in the country to reach 2.29 million under the mild scenario, and eventually increase to 6.54 million by 2023.

Under the medium scenario, meanwhile, visitor arrivals in the country are still seen returning to pre-pandemic levels by 2024, but at a slightly lower count at 8.59 million, according to PATA’s forecasts.

Foreign arrivals under the medium scenario are projected to hit 1.64 million this year and 5.3 million next year.

However, under the severe scenario, PATA’s forecasts showed that a return to pre-pandemic levels will not happen even until 2024.

PATA projects that under such scenario, foreign visitor numbers this year will reach only 971,219, and then grow to 3.14 million and 5.27 million by 2023 and 2024, respectively.

PATA said there are many factors that determine the various scenarios, such as government policies from both source and in-destination, the emergence of new variants, and vaccine rollout, among others.

Asia is seen as the major source region for visitor arrivals in the country across all scenarios, followed by the Americas.

Foreign arrivals are further expected to increase this year with the country opening its borders to all foreign tourists on April 1.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently welcomed the increasing momentum toward re-opening of borders and relaxation of travel restrictions, lauding countries like the Philippines for efforts in supporting air travel.

“The world is largely open for travel. As population immunity grows, more governments are managing COVID-19 through surveillance, as they do for other endemic viruses. That is great news for a growing number of destinations that will receive a much-needed economic boost from the upcoming Easter and northern summer travel seasons,” IATA director general Willie Walsh said.

“Asia is the outlier. Hopefully, recent relaxations including Australia, Bangladesh, New Zealand, Pakistan and the Philippines are paving the way toward restoring the freedom to travel that is more broadly enjoyed in other parts of the world,” Walsh said.