The Philippine presidential poll surveys

The results of the Pulse Asia presidential poll survey conducted on Feb. 18 to 23 was released on Monday this week. This is the first major survey to be held after the official election campaign started on Feb. 8.

According to the survey, Ferdinand “Bong Bong” Marcos leads all presidential candidates, with 60 percent of those polled preferring him. His running mate, Sara Duterte, also leads with 53 percent preferring her over the other vice-presidential hopefuls.

The survey was conducted based on a sample of 2,400 people across the nation.

Early election surveys. Several poll surveys have been conducted to gauge voter sentiments or preferences among the candidates after the filing of candidacies last year, on Sept. 30. Let me cite only the polls conducted by the country’s foremost survey election polling firms.

The SWS (Social Weather Station) has undertaken two surveys so far, the first being on the third week of October 2021, followed by a survey in January. Before its latest survey cited above, Pulse Asia had undertaken a survey in December 2021 and another survey in January.

Surely, there will be more surveys by these two polling establishments as the campaign period intensifies.

Voter preference so far: A big lead by BBM-SARA. The findings of the poll surveys so far indicate a strong lead by Bong Bong Marcos, Jr. for president and Sara for vice president.

The poll surveys show BBM receiving 50 percent or more of the voter preference for president among five of the major candidates for the position. This practically means a commanding lead over all the other presidential aspirants. If the surveys are perfect (which they are not), this would simply mean that he could expect to be the next president.

Statistical surveys are just a snapshot of reality, if the samples taken accurately represent the broader voting population..

BBM and Sara’s position or standing in the polls have remained essentially stable over the periods when the surveys were conducted.

The face of the administration. It is easy to advance the proposition that Marcos and Sara, as a team, represents the face of the administration in power, especially since there is no presidential team that runs under the administration party. This is not clear, however, because President Duterte refuses – up to this time – to endorse them as representing the administration, even though Sara was the President’s earlier choice to run for president.

Clearly, however, the strength of the ticket derives from this relationship with the administration in power.

Bong Bong Marcos, from the start, had said that he would continue the programs of the Duterte administration, and the team-up with Sara certainly consolidates the support of the administration and the voting bloc associated with the Marcos name.

The opposition. Only four other candidates have significant poll preference. But in the face of Marcos’s 60 percent claim on the total poll count, the other candidates are fighting for the remaining 40 percent.

According to the last Pulse Asia Poll, Vice President Leni Robredo got 15 percent; Isko Moreno, 10 percent; Manny Pacquiao, eight percent; and Panfilo Lacson, two percent. All four of them (not to mention the other five candidates who are essentially nuisance), account for 35 percent of the preference of all the poll participants.

In short, if this latest poll is an indication of poll preference for the candidates, it would be a sweeping landslide if the elections were held then. The leading candidate with 60 percent of the votes will get four times as many votes compared to the second highest candidate who receives 15 percent of the vote!

It is, however, still practically 52 days to go before election time. If nothing dramatic happens, between the week before the elections and now, then we know who the next president will be.

Can the poll outcome change? For change to happen to these poll numbers, one of the second placers among the presidential candidates has to experience a surge in poll acceptance dramatically.

At the same time, such a surge in vote preference has to be at the expense of the poll leader. In short, the leading candidate has to experience a drop in voter acceptance.

It has happened before and it can happen again. Let it be said, however, that in previous events, the leading candidate who was toppled from the top was not experiencing an overwhelming lead.

Lately, after a few debate events, Leni Robredo has been attracting large crowds in her campaign sorties in some vote-rich areas. Is this an indication of a surge in her candidacy? Is it the case that big opposition backers have come out behind her?

Moreover, some observers have noted that internet searches for information about her has been much more active than all the other candidates, including Marcos. Is this a confirmation of that surge? Even if it is a surge, the question is whether it is big enough to surpass her major opponent.

“Google trends AS PREDICTOR OF POLLS. Recently on March 9, Google, the IT company, launched a “search trends” page for Philippine elections-related topics. The search page will help users to understand or monitor top queries or topics of interest on the presidential and vice presidential elections.

In this department, Leni Robredo has become the most searched person among the candidates lately. Will that translate into a positive outcome for her, like causing her poll preference to surge?

It is possible to compare the searches for all the major candidates. I have looked at a comparison of the Leni vs BongBong Marcos searches. This can be done real-time as it happens: the past hour, the past four hours, the past day, the past seven days, 30 days, 90 days, and the past years.

Google warns the reader however: “the information available on the search trends page is neither a poll nor a survey, and only reflects the interest in a particular candidate or a election-related topic at a specific point in time….”

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