How different will 2022 be from 2021?
For starters, we have the May elections coming up, which this time around calls for the selection of a new president, a democratic exercise that was bequeathed to us by the Americans in the mid-1900s, the largesse of a conqueror over the conquered.
The Duterte magic is fading fast, and new emerging forces have either ignored or distanced themselves from him. Duterte has not escaped the lame duck president syndrome despite the immense popularity he displayed when voted into office some six years ago.
Who resides in the Palace in July will dictate the pace by which our country will grow well into the next decade. Will the economy pick up speed that will outpace its neighbors, or will it amble without resolve and aim, thus leaving its 110 million citizens with no choice but to plot their own individual destinies?
Pandemic toll
For those who have already sidelined the issue of governance, how the pandemic pans out this year will be a big concern. Will Omicron be the last nerve-wracking variant to dominate infections, and therefore give way to the resumption of the normal living we had surrendered these last 18 months?
Would life in 2022 continue to be what it was in 2021 and 2020? Would the world have weathered the virus cycle – supposedly three years – even without vaccines? The virus seems to be outsmarting the concoctions that our scientists have labored long and hard to cook in laboratories and roll out of pharmaceutical manufacturing plants into the arms of people.
Vaccines may certainly have saved more lives, especially those of the most vulnerable sectors of society, the elderly and those with compromised health. Yet, the world’s reported death toll of over five million – the true tally of which could be triple or higher – is still an affront to modern living.
Changing climes
The past year manifested drastic weather disturbances in many parts of the world: intense heat, severe flooding, more frequent typhoons and hurricanes, heavier snowfall or none at all. These have also come at unexpected and surprising times.
More and more countries, like the Philippines, are ramping up their abilities to respond to disasters. Some have worked, but most fail to measure up to the kind of damage left behind. What took years to build – homes, roads, bridges, utility lines, and even livelihoods – are squashed to worthlessness overnight.
Humans have no crystal ball that can foresee just what climate change would bring. We are powerless and left to simply documenting the aftermath: the gnashing of teeth over lost property, the weeping over lives prematurely wrenched from us.
Fourth industrial revolution
Ever since Alan Turing came up with the concept of a universal computing machine in 1936, a new order of intelligence quickly evolved that today is being touted as the coming of the fourth industrial revolution (IR4).
This pandemic may have slowed down the application to digitalization in a number of industries, mainly because of the resulting global shortages of computer chips, but these are but interim setbacks that cannot stop a radical change in the way we will live, work, and relate with one another.
Humankind is edging closer to experiencing the exponential technological breakthrough that allows billions of people connected by smartphones to mine more knowledge. More importantly, industry is starting to see the application of these new technologies.
Robotics, the Internet of Things, automation and artificial intelligence are but a handful of the disruptions that would force changes in our everyday lives. We are already seeing the tip of the iceberg: paying our bills through our smartphones, news relays via the internet, CCTVs on streets to patrol against crime, and even vaccines that can be readied in just months (previously, in decades).
IR4 will bring more changes that we can possibly have imagined. It will also bring faster progress and better lives to those that can afford, but leave behind those who have little economic means.
The advent of IR4 only underscores the urgency for the Philippines to focus on inclusive growth, where millions of Filipino families living in poverty can have the opportunity to lift their standards of living.
Geopolitics and national interests
Whether these are just benign rumblings or inevitable geopolitical posturing, the world’s most powerful economies are shoring up resources to protect or extend their national interests. The signs of conflict have become more apparent through trade aggressions and militarization.
The polarization of world interests comes at a time when Europe is badly crippled, when the US is trying to exert its dominance in industry, where China continues to extend its overseas interests, and how Russia is capitalizing on its economic resurgence.
There is intense interest in dominating the world’s sea lanes, a brewing conflict that the Philippines is increasingly being drawn in. In the event of another world war, we cannot stand neutral.
Choosing our next leaders
In the face of all the unpredictability of 2022, we ironically know the answers.
It all boils down to choosing qualified and decent leaders this coming May who will guide the country toward a path of resilience against all the volatilities of change, be it another pandemic, weather disturbances, natural calamities, or technological revolutions.
We need leaders who will genuinely think of the best for the country and its people, and who will leave behind the heavy cloak of corruption. We need a government that will be able to stand between and among world powers vying for dominance while currying for our favor and support.
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