MANILA, Philippines — Economic managers are bullish that the Philippine economy will transition to most relaxed restrictions by January next year as cases decline while more Filipinos receive their shots of coronavirus vaccine.
Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III said Wednesday that economic managers expect the country to achieve Alert Level 1 by the “onset of the New Year.”
Under Alert Level 1, all businesses are allowed to operate at full-site capacity, but still subject to minimum public health standards. The alert level system replaced the previous alphabet soup of community quarantine classifications that Filipinos came to know at the onset of the pandemic.
“We contained the Delta variant and sustained our economic expansion even as stringent quarantines were in place for certain periods,” Dominguez said in a speech at the 47th Philippine Business Conference and Expo, which was delivered by Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran on his behalf.
“Our strategy was correct. The results are clear,” he added.
Gross domestic product, or the sum of all goods and services created in an economy, grew 7.1% year-on-year in the July-September period, easing from revised 12% growth recorded in the preceding quarter.
That said, the Philippines managed to prevent a return to recession despite tighter restrictions in August that crippled economic activity in Metro Manila, the center of business and commerce in the country. What made a big difference was the less strict curbs placed this year compared to 2020, when the economy sank to historic-low because lockdowns back then were at their tightest.
Metro Manila is currently under the less strict Alert 2 in which senior citizens and children are allowed on public transportation and business establishments like shopping malls.
With the rollback of curbs, other sectors of the economy are searching for a return to normalcy. Heavy traffic has returned in Metro Manila and once-sleepy commercial areas welcomed weekend crowds. Face-to-face schooling in certain areas resumed at limited capacity and even movie houses and theaters reopened doors to patrons after more than 20 months of being shuttered down.
That said, economic officials believe the economy is “on track to reach the high-end of our 4 to 5 percent growth target for 2021.” Data showed GDP growth averaged 4.9% in the first three quarters.
But while vaccinations, which is key to avoiding disruptive lockdowns in the future, is picking up, the country is yet to immunize a significant portion of its population. Government data showed there are 32.2 million fully vaccinated people in the Philippines as of November 16, equivalent to 29.5% of the country’s total population. And some economists warn that the nation is still vulnerable if more infectious variants emerge.
“Our businesses should prepare to thrive under the terms of this new economy,” Dominguez said.