‘Philippines on way to hurdling most challenging pandemic phase’

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines appears on its way to hurdling the most challenging part of the pandemic this year, with cases on the decline and the vaccination rate picking up pace.

In a report, London-based Capital Economics said the near-term outlook for Southeast Asia has significantly improved over the past months.

This is evident in the notable decline in daily cases. In the Philippines, cases are now at 3,000 to 5,000 per day, a far cry from over 25,000 cases in August.

In a recent forum, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Chua said cases have gone down to levels low enough to allow further reduction in the quarantine status to Alert Level 2 or better in the coming weeks.

While the Philippines is expected to post a weak third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) due to the third round of lockdown, Capital Economics said growth should rebound strongly in the final quarter.

“The economy is now turning a corner. New virus cases have fallen back dramatically and containment measures are being lifted,” Capital Economics said.

The think tank noted that the mobility tracker for the Philippines has rebounded to its highest level since March 2020. Exports have also started to gain some momentum in recent months.

“Progress on vaccination has been relatively slow, but with 90 percent of frontline workers and senior citizens in the big cities now fully vaccinated, the risk of future lockdowns is falling,” it said.

Data from the government showed that the Philippines has given 52.3 million doses, 24.3 million of which are already fully vaccinated, representing 22 percent of the population.

In the capital, 75 percent have already been vaccinated. Inoculation of children also started.

“I think an extra push for another month will allow us to almost fully open the economy, definitely by the end of the year or early next year,” Chua said.

Presently, 77 percent of the economy is still in heightened quarantine, but Chua said people appear to have internalized the pandemic already.

“In other words, they have made it endemic in their lives and people are simply just moving about with their daily routine and just taking care of themselves,” he said.

Meanwhile, Capital Economics said the improving outlook in the Philippines means there is little chance of further easing or tightening of the main policy rate.

Inflation slightly eased in September to 4.8 percent and is expected to moderate further as a recent spike in food prices unwinds and the low base slips out of the annual comparison.