Government growth targets hinge on COVID-19 cases, jabs pace’

MANILA, Philippines — The government and the private sector will take into consideration other data such as  infection spikes and vaccination pace in crafting economic outlooks as these factors determine how the country will recover from the impact of the pandemic.

Finance Undersecretary and chief economist Gil Beltran said yesterday economists would now look into the results of health interventions made by the government in deciding whether to keep or recalibrate their growth forecasts.

“Forecasters will be looking at the success of health interventions in curbing the virus when revising their forecasts,” Beltran said in an economic bulletin.

“They will be monitoring the growth of daily infections, which have risen to more than 13,000, and the vaccination rate, which has peaked at about 700,000 per day. The performance of health interventions will determine the gross domestic product outlook in the quarters ahead,” he said.

The Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) slashed its growth forecast for 2021 to just four to five percent due to the spread of the more contagious COVID Delta variant.

The DBCC  has adjusted downward its growth  target  due to the slowdown in economic activities brought about by the revert to lockdown in multiple areas, especially Metro Manila.

Metro Manila was placed under enhanced community quarantine from Aug. 6 to 20, and is now operating under modified ECQ until Aug. 31.

Based on estimates from the National Economic and Development Authority, the economy lost at least P150 billion in value of production for every week of ECQ.

The  agency also said more than 600,000 workers had to either give up their jobs or clock in reduced hours during the lockdown, pushing about 250,000 individuals below the poverty line on lack of income.

The DBCC said the government would focus lockdowns on a localized level in the future to shield the economy from further damage. It also vowed to speed up the vaccination pace to achieve herd immunity by the end of the year.

According to the economic team, the government has administered a total of 27.8 million doses as of Aug. 15. Authorities plan to expand their collaboration with local governments and the private sector to immunize at least 70 percent of the population within 2021.

In the long term, the DBCC kept its growth targets for 2022 at seven percent to nine percent and for 2023 and 2024 at six percent to seven percent, respectively.