Global tourism losses swell to $1.3 trillion

MANILA, Philippines — The global tourism industry suffered its worst year in history in 2020 as it lost an estimated $1.3 trillion in export revenues due to the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on travel.

In a statement, the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) said international arrivals dropped 74 percent – a decline of one billion arrivals – compared to the year before.

The UNWTO emphasized that export revenue loss is 11 times the loss recorded during the 2009 global economic crisis.

The decline in tourist arrivals is also larger than the four percent drop in 2009.

“The crisis has put between 100 and 120 million direct tourism jobs at risk, many of them in small and medium-sized enterprises,” the UNWTO said.

Asia and the Pacific posted the largest decline in arrivals at 84 percent or 300 million fewer. This was followed by the Middle East and Africa, which both posted a 75 percent decline.

Europe recorded a 70 percent decrease in arrivals, despite a small and short-lived revival in the summer of 2020, while the Americas saw a 69 percent decrease in international arrivals, following somewhat better results in the last quarter of the year.

Meanwhile, results of the UNWTO’s Panel of Experts survey showed a mixed outlook for this year, with almost half of respondents or 45 percent seeing better prospects for 2021 compared to last year, while 25 percent expect a similar performance and 30 percent foresee a worsening of results this year.

“The overall prospects of a rebound in 2021 seem to have worsened. 50 percent of respondents now expect a rebound to occur only in 2022 as compared to 21 percent in October 2020,” the UNWTO said.

The remaining half of respondents still see a potential rebound in 2021, although below the expectations shown in the October 2020 survey, where 79 percent said they expected recovery in 2021.

As and when tourism does restart, the UNWTO Panel of Experts foresee growing demand for open-air and nature-based tourism activities, with domestic tourism and ‘slow travel’ experiences gaining increasing interest this year.

Looking further ahead, most experts do not see a return to pre-pandemic levels happening before 2023, with 43 percent of respondents pointing to a 2023 recovery, while 41 percent expect a return to 2019 levels will only happen in 2024 or later.

“UNWTO’s extended scenarios for 2021-2024 indicate that it could take two-and-a-half to four years for international tourism to return to 2019 levels,” the global organization said.

The UNWTO stressed that due to the evolving nature of the pandemic, many countries are now reintroducing stricter travel restrictions. These include mandatory testing, quarantines and in some cases a complete closure of borders, all weighing on the resumption of international travel.

It added the gradual rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine is expected to help restore consumer confidence, contribute to the easing travel restrictions and slowly normalize travel during the year ahead.

“While much has been made in making safe international travel a possibility, we are aware that the crisis is far from over,” UNWTO secretary-general Zurab Pololikashvili said.

“The harmonization, coordination and digitalization of COVID-19 travel-related risk reduction measures, including testing, tracing and vaccination certificates, are essential foundations to promote safe travel and prepare for the recovery of tourism once conditions allow,” he said.