The cracks that COVID-19 exposed

MANILA, Philippines — The COVID-19 health catastrophe has exposed even the smallest cracks in us and everything around us – our physical and mental health, our relationships, our companies, our homes – testing everything to the core.

Quite a number of individuals with underlying mental issues nearly lost it this year, a psychologist I interviewed told me; patients with existing illnesses became more vulnerable; couples have split homes because of stress and cabin fever; marriages with severe cracks collapsed altogether.

Companies with weak balance sheets posted losses, and fragile businesses shut down.

Whether as an individual or as a company, only those with strong foundations survived.

But the biggest cracks COVID-19 exposed are those in the Duterte administration, making our 2020 even tougher than what was written in the stars.

Dutertenomics

COVID-19 came at a time when this nation of 107 million was not prepared for such a catastrophe. Our economy was vulnerable, no thanks to the inability of the Duterte administration to reinforce the foundation since it took over in June 2016.

The numbers tell the story. From 2016 to 2019, the Philippine economy, as measured by gross domestic product, posted slower growth: 6.8 percent in 2016; 6.7 percent in 2017; 6.2 percent in 2018 and 5.9 percent in 2019.

The Duterte administration had a good jump-off point, enjoying the laurels of the previous administration, which earned the trust and confidence of credit rating agencies and foreign investors as marked by the first investment grade rating for the Philippines in 2013, among others.

Credit rating upgrades and higher government expenditures contributed to strong economic growth during the previous administration.

It is a fact that the Philippines improved governance, especially in fiscal reforms during the administration of Noynoy Aquino (although I’ve always believed that it could have done more in pushing for inclusive growth had it not been too focused on going after its enemies).

Still, the previous administration bequeathed a foundation strong enough for the Duterte government to build on.

Drug war

Yet, President Duterte chose to focus largely on the drug trade, waging a bloody drug war, convinced that the Philippines is just like Mexico, where drug cartels fight for control to expand their trade.

But the only thing similar between Mexico’s and our drug problem is the body count. In Mexico, drug lords hang the headless bodies of their enemies to sow fear in the streets. Here, people in the slums believed to be drug users are killed either by the police or by God-knows-who.

Mexico’s drugs are sold mainly to the Americans. In the Philippines, it’s a rampant meth trade involving foreign sources and Filipinos as consumers. And yet, the drug war isn’t focused on the source of the drugs, but on the users and peddlers in the slums who are forced to eke out such a living because of poverty. It’s no surprise that in 2017, P6.4 billion worth of shabu from China – the biggest  shipment in recent years – slipped past the Bureau of Customs.

Inclusive growth

The government could have deepened economic development by improving productivity and the interconnectedness of the different economic sectors. This could have translated to stronger economic growth and better employment – and a more inclusive growth later on.

There are no clear signs these have happened; Philippine products and industries have yet to become more competitive. In fact, we have chosen to isolate some trading partners.

Build Build Build

The much touted Build Build Build program, which was supposed to usher in the golden age of infrastructure in the country, had targeted 75 projects initially, but has only completed two projects as of April 2019, according to government data.

COVID-19 response

And all of that got us to where we are now – in a precarious state when COVID-19 struck. The economy is suffering its deepest contraction, 11.5 percent in the third quarter year-on-year.

It didn’t help that the government’s response to COVID-19 has been mostly disorganized, focusing on lockdowns violated no less by the entitled ones, the very same people supposed to implement it.

We’ve listened to uninspiring late night ramblings and we continue to wait for more believable take-charge messaging.

We lack mass testing and contact-tracing and a more effective strategy in reopening the economy.

There were small victories, of course. Monetary authorities have taken extraordinary actions such as quantitative easing, and our fiscal leaders consistently pushed for the right stimulus programs.

But our lawmakers’ unbelievable display of petulance and power delayed the passage of crucial fiscal measures.

Most of all, our health authorities failed us big time – we have the longest lockdown and we’re behind in vaccine acquisitions – and continue to do so. On the new COVID-19 strain from the United Kingdom, Health Secretary Francisco Duque said there is no need to ban flights unless community transmission happens. In that case, we are doomed again.

There will be more uncertainty in 2021, but it’s not too late to make up for past blunders. I fervently hope our authorities step up and get us out of this mess.

Iris Gonzales’ email address is [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter @eyesgonzales. Column archives at eyesgonzales.com