MANILA, Philippines — Philippines pork production is expected to slowly recover next year after the onslaught of the African swine fever (ASF).
In a report, the United States Department of Agriculture- Foreign Agricultural Service said Philippine pork production may improve by six percent to 1.35 million metric tons in 2021 from the expected 1.27 million MT this year.
“Recovery from ASF is driving production growth in Vietnam and the Philippines, although outbreaks continue to occur in the latter country which could challenge rebuilding efforts,” USDA said.
The Department of Agriculture earlier said it is earmarking an initial P400 million to restock hogs and repopulate the swine industry.
The ASF in the Philippines has so far killed and culled about 370,000 hogs since the first outbreak started in August last year.
USDA said the production recovery in 2021 is likely to be gradual and would still not reach the 2019 level of 1.59 million MT as parts of the country continue to deal with the ASF.
Consumption is also seen picking up by nine percent to 1.55 million MT in 2021 from this year’s expected 1.42 million MT.
As improvement in local production is seen to be gradual, imports are still expected to go up by 33 percent to 200,000 MT from this year’s level of 150,000 MT.
This as demand for meat and other food products improves and as any rebound in local pork production is expected to be cautiously slow.
“Other major pork importers including Mexico, the Philippines, Japan, Korea, and the US are all forecast higher, but these countries combined account for less trade than China alone,” USDA said.
Global production is forecast to be four percent higher next year due to rebounding output in countries affected by the ASF and to a lesser extent recovery from COVID-19 impacts.
Global pork demand is also expected to rebound from COVID-19 on improving economic conditions and recovery in the restaurant and food service sectors.