Close, open, close pa rin?

Metro Manila’s 17 mayors gave three options to the coronavirus  COVID-19 task force on what to do with the lockdown after May 15:

1) extension of the enchanced community quarantine for two more weeks to May 30. 2) ECQ will be lifted, and general community quarantine (GCQ) will be imposed in the entire Metro Manila. 3) Modified GCQ, where LGUs are allowed to impose a lockdown on a specific barangay or zone if needed.

The mayors were divided on what to do since there is no perfect solution that satisfies economic and health concerns. Actually, government’s mishandling of the crisis at the start is at the root of our present problems. A good observation was made in a Viber Group I am with:

“The mass quarantine should have bought us time to expand targeted quarantine – isolate, trace, test, isolate again. No home quarantine, only facility based. If it costs P10 billion, still cheaper than even a day of lockdown in NCR. Instead the authorities dithered and hoped mass quarantine will do it. So mistaken.”

Rep. Joey Salceda, who called for the lockdown last March, is also now tired of more lockdowns. Rep. Joey said he “has studied twice, thrice, and so many times” essential data on the crisis.

Rep. Joey now thinks we are “more than ready” to face the consequences of easing quarantine protocols after May 15. He is saying a lockdown will now be a cure worse than the risk of the disease.

Salceda also warned government not to “fall for the easy default of an unplanned lockdown” when there is a spike in COVID-19 cases. He said an unplanned lockdown can only be done at the expense of our recovery.

Rep. Joey also wants the NTF to continue and increase testing, tracing, and treatment - achieve 8k/day by May 15 and 30k/day by May 30. Our hospitals must also remain prepared for surges, acquire ventilators for areas where infection waves remain likely, and must stockpile enough PPEs to protect health care workers.

Salceda is not saying anything new. Check out Vietnam. They are winning their fight against COVID-19 with just 288 cases and zero deaths. It is “poorer” than the Philippines in terms of GDP per capita. ($2566.60 for Vietnam; $3102.71 for the Philippines as of 2018).

The secrets to Vietnam’s success 1. Quick action. 2. Mass testing. 3. Effective quarantine.  Like Vietnam, we started with three test centers in February. We now have around 20 to Vietnam’s 120.

Our failure on testing is largely Sec Duque’s. He didn’t prepare for it, so he had to justify his mistake by insisting testing isn’t a priority.

We only had 5,000 test kits and only RITM processing most of the tests for weeks. Duque’s failure made us waste almost two months of economic paralysis in a lockdown.

Again, let us be clear that there are two kinds of tests needed for two different reasons. The so-called gold standard test is what doctors need to treat a patient.

The other, rapid mass testing, is for knowing how badly the virus has infected the population and where the clusters of infection are. Knowing that, we can plan to revive the economy.

The President realized the failure of Duque. But instead of replacing him, he appointed Vince Dizon as some kind of a “testing czar.” Vince will surely deliver.

We are also lucky to have Joey Concepcion. The son of industrialist Jose Concepcion of RFM, Joey strongly advocated the need for testing, tracing and isolating every time the President meets his COVID crisis advisers.

The other thing Joey did was to organize Project ARK, a private sector-led initiative aimed at introducing rapid antibody testing to companies and barangays.

Joey told ANC’s Cathy Yang they now have about 168 companies, and around 1,016,000 kits that have been purchased. “But we already have some test kits that we’re using right now in the mass testing in Manila…

“So what the private sector is trying to do in Project ARK is open up the economy. It is either you do lockdown or you do the test. It’s one of the two…

“Eventually I’m seeing around 500 private companies taking part in this initiative. Testing is not just for this month, it’s forever until we find a cure for the virus…

“Let’s look at the capacity right now. They’re supposed to hit 8,000 (tests) by April 30, they were not able to hit that…

“Our recommendation is to do the rapid testing twice a month, the first week and the third week of the month… The more we test our people, the more we discover where the virus is.

“Joji Gotianun-Yap, who is part of Project ARK, can map out the COVID-19 situation in the country with the help of Thinking Machines. The idea is to eventually map out the entire Philippines: green, red, and yellow zones…

“Testing has to come up with data, because data is so precious. So, all private sector companies and all the LGUs will have to submit their data to a central group.

“Together with the DOH data, we will be able to come up with a clearer picture of how the Philippines looks on a daily basis.

“Let’s assume that the virus will never disappear. Then let’s create an environment where we can coexist with the virus. That’s the best way businesses can prepare, and the rapid test kits can help supplement that. Testing is the only way to bring back confidence…”

If the President is worried our healthcare system will be overwhelmed if he relaxes quarantine, he should not be. As of May 4 the official COVID19 website shows only 40 percent of ICU beds, 43 percent of isolation beds, 37 percent of ward beds and 25 percent of ventilators are in use.

GCQ for Metro Manila is not a drastic step. But it gets us started on the new normal. It will help us determine how we can co-exist with the virus.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco