Global airlines shoot down vacant middle seat

MANILA, Philippines — The body representing global airlines came out against leaving middle seats empty on aircraft on Tuesday, as debate intensifies over how to get airlines flying while respecting social distancing rules in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.

Brian Pearce, chief economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said most airlines would have been unable to make money last year if a third of the seats had been removed on the industry’s most-flown models.

In April, IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac said leaving the middle seat empty was among the likely conditions for a resumption of air travel to be discussed with governments around the world.

According to the group, calls for social distancing measures on aircraft would fundamentally shift the economics of aviation by slashing the maximum load factor to 62 percent, which is well below the average industry breakeven load factor of 77 percent.

“With fewer seats to sell, unit costs would rise sharply. Compared to 2019, air fares would need to go up dramatically – between 43 percent and 54 percent depending on the region – just to cover costs,” IATA said.

For Asia-Pacific, IATA said average airfare could increase by 54 percent to $217 from 2019 levels should the proposed social distancing measure be enforced.

“IATA does not recommend restricting the use of the middle seat to create social distancing while onboard aircraft. Evidence, although limited, suggests that the risk of virus transmission on board aircraft is low even without special measures,” it said.

Even if mandated, the group said keeping the middle seat open would not achieve the recommended separation for social distancing to be effective.

This is because most authorities recommend a one-meter to two-meter distance, while the average seat width is less than 50 centimeters, IATA said.

IATA, instead, recommends mandatory face-coverings for passengers and masks for crew as one of several actions to reduce what it believes is the already low risk of contracting COVID-19 on board aircraft.

“The safety of passengers and crew is paramount. The aviation industry is working with governments to re-start flying when this can be done safely. Evidence suggests that the risk of transmission on board aircraft is low. And we will take measures—such as the wearing of face coverings by passengers and masks by crew – to add extra layers of protection,”  de Juniac said.

“We must arrive at a solution that gives passengers the confidence to fly and keeps the cost of flying affordable. One without the other will have no lasting benefit. Screening, face coverings and masks are among the many layers of measures that we are recommending. Leaving the middle seat empty, however, is not,” de Juniac said.