Not there yet

No, we are not quite there yet. I expect the Interagency Task Force (IATF) for COVID-19 response to have a tough time making a wise decision to lift or extend the quarantine next week.

A partial lifting of the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) is now on the table. There is fear that the continued total lockdown for Luzon may so damage the economy to make social unrest a serious concern.

But how can we relax when even Singapore had to impose a virtual lockdown last week with a second wave of cases.

The Singapore Prime Minister lamented that “despite our good contact tracing for nearly half of these cases, we do not know where or from whom the person caught the virus. This suggests that there are more people out there who are infected, but who have not been identified. And they may be passing the virus unknowingly to others.”

That is why I think it is likely that the lockdown will be maintained in NCR, and probably Calabarzon up to the end of April. Keeping it for the entire Luzon is still under strong consideration.  

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, in an interview with DZMM Teleradyo, said the number of COVID-19 cases in the country may peak from 70,000 to 75,000 cases within three months (June), based on modelling forecasts. If the worse is yet to come, we can’t relax.

Economist Toti Chikiamco, however, points out that these “epidemiological models reflect probabilities given certain assumptions, but the hunger of the poor and the disruption in the supply chain is clear, certain and palpable.”

General Carlito Galvez, the chief implementer of the national government’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak, needs the two weeks after April 14 to ramp up massive testing and put PUIs in quarantine. They are hoping to get better numbers by end April to justify loosening the quarantine measures.

Rep. Joey Salceda also thinks that prematurely lifting restrictions will trigger a massive wave of new infections and just waste the monthlong lockdown we all endured.

“That would not be good for the economy because it risks getting us back to square zero in terms of our progress in fighting this disease,” Salceda said.

The Foundation for Economic Freedom however believes that “certain restrictions imposed on the movement of people and commerce are having a harmful effect on people’s livelihoods and ultimately also endanger public health.”

The FEF wants a calibrated easing of some restrictions to allow economic activity to resume but accompanied by a specific set of guidelines to prevent the spread of COVID-19. For instance, old people like myself must remain quarantined.

More than 630,000 workers nationwide have been displaced by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, Labor Secretary Silvestre Bello III reported. Of these figures, Bello said,169,232 belong to the informal sector.

But Rep. Salceda, also an economist, is not impressed. He is calling for an extension of the ECQ over Luzon by another two weeks.

Salceda strongly recommended mass testing to “confront the enemy and fully grasp its dimensions. We do not yet fully know the size of its territory or the magnitude of its full impact.

“We must increase our testing by at least 10,000 specimens per day, contact trace and isolate with the best logical and technological means available (mobile tracking, GPS, mapping, etc.).

“We must identify infection clusters with data from mass testing and intensified contact tracing, and confront the virus where it is.

“Simply said, we can only make a risk-stratified stabilization or normalization if we do mass testing of at least 200,000. Based on our capacity and possible increments, we cannot do that before April 14, thus we cannot lift ECQ and we will need the next 14 days to have a better grasp of situation,” Salceda added.

Sounds reasonable.

My guess is that some kind of compromise will be reached. Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez is eager to allow some industries to start gearing up again, specially those in food and in the manufacturing of other essential products.

“We will be focusing on the more basic businesses and their supply chains. This means even those that manufacture inputs for, let’s say food, hygienic products, medical products,” Lopez said.

Suppliers of parts, raw materials and packaging, as well as the agriculture sector, hardware stores and other services will most likely be allowed to operate again but under strict guidelines.

The FEF suggested as much. Examples of such restrictions include:

Mandatory use of face masks for everybody.

Mandatory social distancing. This is necessary even if it limits capacities and reduces efficiency… It should be enforced aggressively for all activities.

Allow public transport with disinfection measures before and after every trip. The lack of public transport is particularly injurious to the poor and harms public health.

Remove checkpoints between LGUs and allow free movement of all goods with disinfection measures before and after every trip.

Encourage work-from-home arrangements and staggered working hours.

Hard lockdown for certain barangays or neighborhoods which are identified as hotspots.

Continue ban on mass gatherings of any kind including classes, religious gatherings, or public events.

Allow factories and offices to reopen, but continue ban on congregations of more than 10. Stagger working hours when appropriate.

Build quickly for surge capacity: temporary COVID-specialized hospitals in all regions and quarantine hotels to house PUIs. It is only now we are doing what we should have started to do in February.

What looks encouraging now is General Galvez himself. He seems to know what to do and is determined to get things done. We didn’t have that kind of leadership when DOH Sec Francisco Duque was calling the shots.

A modified extended lockdown should give us more confidence to make better decisions by end of April. Sayang naman… we have already invested four weeks.

No, we are not there yet. Far from it. But feed the hungry.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco