'Swine fever could continue to spread in the Philippines in coming quarters'
MANILA, Philippines — The dreaded African swine fever that hit the Philippines this year could further spread in the coming months, likely spelling disaster for the nation’s hog industry and lead to a decline in pork production, a Fitch unit said.
The Department of Agriculture last month confirmed that the highly contagious and deadly disease has reached the Philippines amid the sudden death of pigs in Rizal and Bulacan provinces.
In a research note, Fitch Solutions said pork output in the Philippines could fall 1.5% year-on-year to 1.6 million tons in 2020 as the virus wreaks havoc in Asia.
Meanwhile, pork production in China and Vietnam — which were badly hit by ASF — is forecast to drop 5% and 3.1%, respectively, next year, the Fitch unit added.
Given that over 60% of the Philippines’ swine population are located in backyard farms — where ASF has a tendency to spread quickly — Fitch Solutions said “there is a strong possibility that the disease could continue to spread over the coming quarters.”
“Farmers are unlikely to begin rebuilding herds in these countries while the epidemic is still ongoing, and even when monthly outbreaks subside, it can take up to a year for new animals to be ready for slaughter,” Fitch Solutions explained.
While the disease is usually fatal in pigs but not harmful to humans, the ASF can cause major economic loss to swine industries. According to Fitch Solutions, global pork prices remain elevated and food inflation in China has now reached an all-time high.
The Philippine government culled hogs in several locations and enforced a temporary ban on the importation of pork meat products from countries affected by the virus in a bid to safeguard the nation’s P260-billion pork industry.
Some provinces also reportedly blockaded pork products from other areas to protect their piggeries from infection.
As governments work to contain the virus and amid high international prices of pork, Fitch Solutions said pork consumption in the Philippines, China and Vietnam could decline 1%, 2% and 5%, respectively, in 2020.
- Latest
- Trending
