DTI expects total exports to rise 6% this year

MANILA, Philippines — The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) expects the country’s total exports to expand by 6.1 percent this year from last year with merchandise and service exports seen to increase year-on-year.

DTI – Export Marketing Bureau (EMB) director Senen Perlada said the agency expects exports to rise by 6.1 percent to $94.6 billion this year.

Total exports rose by 2.9 percent to $89.1 billion last year from $86.6 billion in 2017.

Perlada said the country’s exports of goods are forecasted to increase by four percent to reach $53.7 billion this year after declining slightly to $51.7 billion last year from $51.8 billion in 2017.

Under the Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP), the target for merchandise exports this year is at $51.2 billion to $52.7 billion.

Perlada said service exports which include business process outsourcing, tourism, as well as films and television shows aired overseas, meanwhile, are forecasted by the DTI-EMB to go up nine percent to $40.8 billion this year after climbing 7.6 percent to reach $37.5 billion last year from $34.8 billion in 2017.

DTI-EMB’s forecast for service exports is lower than the $42.6 billion to $43.7 billion goal under the PEDP.

While the forecast for service exports is lower than the PEDP target, Perlada said total exports this year are still expected to be within the PEDP goal of $93.7 billion to $96.4 billion.

He said DTI-EMB’s forecasts for this year took into account the possible impact of the ongoing US-China trade war, as well as the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union.

“There’s basically negative business sentiment. If you look at the trade-oriented economies, basically, trade is down, export-import. Very few are positive, globally. So, trade will really be affected especially this year,” he said.

Even as DTI-EMB expects total exports to increase this year, he said the ongoing dry spell could be a drag on growth as it affects the supply of agricultural products which serve as raw materials for fresh and processed exports.

“As we speak, it has yet to be reflected. Fruits and vegetables, it’s still a growth sector, but mid toward the end of the year, there will be an effect there,” he said.

As El Niño is expected to affect exports this year, he said the DTI is in talks with the Department of Agriculture to monitor the situation and looking at promoting other exports apart from agricultural goods.

“We just have to look for other goods we can export, the likes of furniture, wearables, footwear,” he said.

He said the DTI is also hoping the country could start exporting cars, as well as pushing for other goods such as arms and ammunition, to offset the possible slowdown in agricultural exports this year.