I received an e-mail with a number of interesting predictions. It had been forwarded so many times that the name of whoever wrote it is gone. It would have been nice to see the author’s credentials.
I googled it and came out with a Linked-in post of a Bryan Huston, but no indication if he wrote it or if he is also just passing it on. It is a bit long so I will just pick and choose some predictions and make some comments (in italics) when appropriate.
Many of the so-called predictions probably need fact checking, but for now I am just interested in the general drift. Anyway, here are some:
Auto repair shops will go away. A gasoline engine has thousands of individual parts compared to an electrical engine. It will take only a few minutes to remove and replace an electric engine. Faulty electric engines are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots.
Essentially, if your electric “check motor” light comes on, you simply drive up to what looks like a car wash. Your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new engine.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the whole industry will begin to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore.
You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it. You only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving.
This will change the cities, because we will need 90-95 percent less cars. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
I can’t wait for this day to come. EDSA with 95 percent less cars? That will be heaven on earth!
Most car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car companies are still trying the evolutionary approach by just building better cars or even hybrids, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
Many engineers from car companies are completely terrified of Tesla. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy (and have cleaner air) because all new cars will run on electricity.
Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean. Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, and you can now see the burgeoning impact.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue… technology will take care of that strategy.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Homes produce and store more electrical energy during the day. They use what they need and will sell back excess production to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users.
This prediction I personally know has arrived. My son installed solar panels on the roof of his house in California. During the day the panels produce electricity which he sells to the grid while he is at work. In the evening, he buys from the grid. The two way meter records the flow of electricity to and from his house and the grid.
Additionally, my son drives a fully electric VW car. When he gets home early evening, he plugs the car to a charger in his garage. But he programmed it so the car won’t start charging until it is past midnight because off peak hours are cheaper. The car will be fully charged for my son to use early the next morning.
There are charging stations in supermarket parking lots and near where my son works in Mountain View. When he is caught in heavy traffic, the car charges every time he hits the breaks.
Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age!!
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next five-to10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.
In the US, young lawyers already have difficulty getting jobs. Because of IBM’s Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90 percent accuracy compared with 70 percent accuracy when done by humans.
So, if you are studying law, stop immediately. There will be 90 percent fewer lawyers in the future, only omniscient specialists will remain.
Watson is already helping doctors diagnose and treat cancer.
Actually Watson reviews all relevant studies that may help a doctor determine the appropriate approach for the patient’s cure based on an individual patient’s genetic make-up and results of diagnostic tests. A cure can be tailor made for a patient rather than the automatic slash, poison and burn (surgery plus chemo and radiation).
Unfortunately, no Philippine hospital uses Watson to help cancer patients, unlike in China where a good number already do.
I will take up the other predictions in a future column. Suffice it to say, the brave new world is here. We just have to be ready to benefit from it.
We need to update our laws and have an open mind about innovations that disrupt the status quo. We are now at least 20 years behind.
Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is bchanco@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco