Trump-ian pique

In a span of two weeks, Donald Trump has turned upside down traditional US policies and potentially walked away from its Western allies. First he dissed America’s traditional allies by refusing to sign the G7 statement that all sides had laboriously crafted to accommodate Trump’s reservations. There were two issues of contention between the US and the others, according to reports. By now, these two issues have become standard for the US position in many international and regional fora, including APEC.

The first issue involved the World Trade Organization, which the Trump administration has apparently abandoned in favor of bilateralism and unilateral action. They didn’t want the WTO mentioned.  Eventually, a compromise was reached for the text, which reads: “We underline the crucial role of a rules-based international trading system.”

The second issue was United States’ insistence on “reciprocal” trade, the source said. The compromise on that issue resulted in language that said “free, fair, and mutually beneficial trade and investment, while creating reciprocal benefits, are key engines for growth and job creation.”

Then he had barely taken off when he learned that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had spoken at a press conference that Canada intends to retaliate for US tariffs on its steel and aluminum exports. The tariffs were being imposed unilaterally on national security grounds. Trump immediately lashed out at Trudeau calling him “weak and dishonest,” and instructed his officials not to endorse the G7 communique. Canada is only one member of the G7 and those other members affected by the tariffs on steel and aluminum have responded similarly as Canada, including Mexico and the EU, plus China. I guess this is as clear a demonstration of presidential pique clouding better judgment.  

To add insult to injury, he openly lobbied for Russia’s return to the G7. The G7 had agreed last year to throw out Russia from the group as punishment for invading Ukraine and occupying Crimea. 

Then Trump did it again when he met with Kim Jong Un in Singapore in an elaborately staged summit that many observers felt yielded a one-sided outcome. The most positive take on the outcome for us peace and freedom loving people is to see it as a start to further negotiations down the road for denuclearization. Given North Korea’s history for coming up short of previous commitments, unbridled optimism may perhaps be misplaced, at this point in time.

But its best to leave that to history to prove, and I will not speculate on what the possible outcome will be. Let’s hope for our region’s sake that it does lead to “complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement” on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program – a term so widely used that it has its own abbreviation, CVID.  What is worrying and immediately relevant to us is a promise that Trump made that, in effect, put South Korea, Japan, and the rest of East Asia under the bus. Again and without prior consultation, he said he would cancel future joint military exercises with Korea, calling them a waste of money and merely serves as provocation (not the good guys for sure).  Trump said he would like to see in the future a withdrawal of American troops from Korea. This has given Korean President Moon and Japanese President Abe sleepless nights – as should all Southeast Asian countries who rely on US deterrence against aggressive territorial ambitions in the region. 

So in a space of one week, President Trump has undermined the Western Alliance, cast doubts about America’s commitment to be a balancing force in Asia, empowered Russia and China, and demoralized freedom-seeking people around the world. Trump has been described as the most glandular American president – that is to say he is guided more by his emotions. He has shown on many occasions, often, expressed in his tweets, which oftentimes morph into official policy. Then he leaves his people to make sense out of it. 

Philippine version

I had written about our own President who shares many of Trump’s attributes. I had mentioned how presidential pique over any criticism directed against the anti-drug war had led him to denounce our traditional partners – the US and the EU – and embrace China and Russia as his new friends. There is nothing wrong, of course, with making new friends, but not at the expense of eschewing old and usually reliable partners. I mentioned the perils of making decisions that are not well-considered or have benefitted from counsel and consultation.  In our case this has led to an on the fly foreign policy that confuses our diplomatic partners despite the best efforts of our seasoned and professional diplomats. Some say the inchoate state of our foreign policy reflects the country’s diplomat-in-chief’s penchant on relying on his own judgement or the advice of those not versed in the ways of diplomacy. 

Barter on the high seas

There are two issues that bear watching in the reported harassment of Filipino fishermen plying their trade in the Scarborough Shoal. One is the assertion that the presence of the Filipinos there are through the goodwill of China, and that somehow that right will be taken away if we displease them.  The second is that the incident is being dismissed as barter with the consent of both parties.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration has ruled that the Scarborough Shoal is traditional fishing grounds for the Philippines and our fishermen should fish there not because of China’s kindness or generosity, but as a matter of international law. As for the taking of the catch, it would be convenient to blame this incident on rogue elements of the Chinese Coast Guard, if only to allow both sides a graceful way out. But it should not happen again. If it does, we should speak loudly and publicly about it.