Romeo Encarnacion is a Filipino expat who has worked and is still working in the United States and in Eastern Europe. He writes a regular blog that is now also a book: Learning to Reinvent Ourselves: How to Make the Philippines a Winner in the 21st Century.
Mr. Encarnacion felt frustration over the years to see his country flounder compared to the Eastern European countries he worked in. I deeply share his frustrations over the absence of strategic leadership among our political leaders. This has resulted in an economy that may seem robust compared to the past, but has still underperformed if we consider its potential.
Mr. Encarnacion saw first hand how Eastern Europe rose from the ashes of failed communist rule rather quickly. That increased his frustration. In so many words, he feels bad we were left behind, even if we were better positioned to more quickly develop than Bulgaria or Romania in the years when Mr. Encarnacion was stationed there.
Early this week, he wrote something so appropriate for us now that we are about to elect the next president. He described visionary and strategic leadership as “Taking the people from where they are to where they have never been before.”
In a word, that spells progress. In our case, he asks: “why can’t we move forward as a nation? And Metro Manila’s traffic is evidence # 1. When you’re sitting in traffic, think about it!”
He wonders why we are unable to accomplish long standing “need-to-dos.” Why are we “doing the same failed things over and over . . . same-old, same-old? Have we accounted for the Marcos loot yet? Will Bongbong want that kept safely away from Juan de la Cruz?”
Mr. Encarnacion must have been incredulous that even as we have failed to make the Marcoses account for and return unexplained wealth, we are about to elect Bongbong vice president. I guess if you have been abroad for a long time, this cultural trait best described as collective amnesia boggles the mind. Crime does pay if you can win an election.
Mr. Encarnacion writes: “Do we want to ask the Romanians if a Ceausescu will ever make it as leader of their nation again? After fumbling for 25 years, they elected one – a liberal from the country’s ethnic German population – committed to crackdown on corruption and strengthen the rule of law.”
On the Constitution and the refusal of P-Noy to amend its restrictive economic provisions, Encarnacion wonders “Why would the elite class even want to tinker with it?”
Our focus, Encarnacion thinks, should be on how to “leapfrog to the 21st century.” He says that can only happen if our leaders step up to reality instead of expecting Juan de la Cruz to be thankful for the traffic jams because we’re growing the economy.
Mr. Encarnacion confirms from experience that “we can compete against the best in the world, but not if we keep doing the same failures over and over again and expect a different outcome.”
The name of the game, he said, “is about cultivating talent, not validating talent. It is the distinction between a growth mindset and a fixed mindset.” He warned that unless we Pinoys figure that out, we would find ourselves like a fish out of water in the 21st century.
I guess it really is all about a leader having a vision for the country. He or she must be so obsessed with this vision so that he or she will make sure it happens as quickly as possible.
Right now, it is all about short term gains for the vested interests that include the president and the Cabinet and their friends. Even NEDA only makes a plan for the next five years within a presidential term and the next administration will have its own that may not have anything to do with the preceding one.
From what I have seen so far, none of the presidential contenders seem to have a vision that is as essential as a roadmap before a long trip. What we have are bits and pieces of things that resonate with various constituencies that may or may not fit in a coherent whole to achieve a tangible benefit for all.
I must admit media is also to blame. We ask the easy questions whose answers we know or have no real value. No one is asking the questions that matter, the questions that attempt to probe the minds of the candidates how they will convert nice dreams they promise into hard reality once elected. We let the candidates get away easily with generalities that say nothing.
Mr. Encarnacion sums up what we should look for. We should look for a leader who will “Take the people from where they are to where they have never been before.” Anything less is just more of the same.
Survey
I just attended a Pulse Asia briefing where we dissected the innards of the numbers that were earlier reported by media. Here are some takeaways I got:
- Those who are voting for Jojo Binay want him because they have seen him do something for his constituents. They are not too concerned about corruption.
- Those who are voting for Grace Poe want her because of her untainted reputation… she is not corrupt… mabait. She is everything Binay is not. Strangely, Binay and Poe seem to also share some voters. Indeed, when Binay goes up in the polls, Poe goes down and vice versa. If Poe is disqualified, Binay will tremendously benefit.
- By age group, Duterte and Poe seem to have the 18-35 age group at 30 percent each… Mar has only nine percent of this young group.
- Those who have a college degree seem to favor Duterte, a counterintuitive finding in the survey. Duterte’s support is weakest among the Class E voters or the poorest of the poor.
- Less than half, at 48 percent, think the election will be credible while 39 percent say there will be cheating. Over 60 percent in Mindanao expect cheating.
- 50 percent think the new president should be knowledgeable in management of government. Worsening criminality and drugs are now the top concerns.
- Core support of candidates: Poe at 29 percent; Binay at 22 percent; Duterte at 19 percent and Roxas at 19 percent.
- Supporters of Mar Roxas are essentially from the rural areas. One explanation offered was the effect of the CCT program. The Liberals have poured a lot of our tax money on projects that benefit the rural areas. Mar has very weak support in the urban areas and is extremely weak in Metro Manila where there is seething anger over infrastructure failures. Think DOTC.
- In terms of core supporters by ethnicity, Poe has 35 percent in the Tagalog region with Binay at 29 per cent; Ilocos, Binay at 36 and Poe at 23; Pangasinan, Poe at 71, Roxas at 18 and Binay at two; Kapampangan, Poe at 35 and Binay at 25; Bicolano, Poe at 42, Roxas at 23 and Binay at 22; Ilonggo, Roxas at 35 and Poe at 24; Cebuano, Duterte at 41 and Poe at 20; Waray, Binay at 33 and Poe at 30; Others, Poe at 29 and Binay at 22.
Overall, it is still a four way fight. But it does seem it will increasingly be a battle between Binay and Poe, if Poe is allowed by the Supreme Court to run. Otherwise, the election is Binay’s to win by a large margin. Indeed, if Poe and Duterte are not running, Binay will win over Roxas 50 vs 20 percent with the rest not voting for anyone or undecided.
Looks like Roxas needs Poe to stay as a candidate and provide a glimmer of hope that he has a chance at all.
Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is bchanco@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco.