More investors bullish on Philippine prospects – StanChart

MANILA, Philippines - Investors are bullish on the country’s economic prospects over the next five years, according to a survey conducted by Standard Chartered Bank.

Based on the survey conducted by the bank among 160 of its top financial institution and corporate clients, more than 80 percent of the respondents expect the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow above five percent over the next five years.

More than 45 percent of the total respondents see the economy expanding between five and 5.9 percent, while 30 percent of the respondents expect the economy growing between six and 6.9 percent.

About nine percent of the total respondents are more bullish and expect the country’s GDP growth exceeding seven percent between 2016 and 2020.

However, 15 percent of the respondents see the economy growing between four and 4.9 percent, while one percent expects the expansion falling below four percent.

Jeff Ng, economist for Southeast Asia at Standard Chartered Bank, said in a research note titled “Philippines – What our clients think” the bank sees the GDP growth for the Philippines averaging 5.8 percent between 2016 and 2020.

“We share our clients’ views. We estimate GDP growth of 5.8 percent for the next five years, with significant upside potential for above six percent growth once near-term headwinds start to fade,” Ng said.

The economy grew by an average of 5.9 percent between 2011 and 2015.

Economic growth slipped to 5.8 percent last year from 6.1 percent in 2014, way below the seven to eight percent growth target set by government economic managers.

Ng said Standard Chartered Bank is sticking to its GDP growth forecast of 5.7 percent.

However, he explained the bank’s clients are more bullish about the country’s GDP growth for 2016.

“More clients (a net 32 percent) expected business prospects to improve in the year ahead than was the case in 2015 (24 percent). This is due to a higher percentage of clients expecting better growth and a lower percentage expecting lower growth,” Standard Chartered Bank said.

The percentage of clients most concerned about China rose to 51 percent this year from 31 percent in 2015, while Europe and the US were less of a concern despite uncertainty over the outlook for US growth and rates.

“We differ from our clients here – we are more bearish on the US and more bullish on China.