Still up in the air

ANAHEIM, California- Just before Christmas, three surveys from usually reliable sources came up with results that suggests the presidential election in May is still very much up in the air. No one seems to have the election in the bag and surprises should be expected. 

Jojo Binay emerged in one of last week’s poll results stronger than ever. Binay was tied with Grace Poe in one, and Grace topped the third.

It may have surprised many that Binay was far from being a spent force. It could be because Binay was quietly working under the radar on his national constituency while headline writers and social media were busy with Duterte’s colorful language and the Comelec was busy disqualifying Poe. It would appear Binay has his 30 percent core constituency back.

Interesting to note that despite the all out support of the administration and the fairly large budget being spent in political advertising, there is still a general reluctance to choose Mar Roxas.  He has gained points, but one would expect him taking the lead given his built in advantages of administration support. Leni Robredo seems to be doing a lot better as she moved up to second place. There is more ground to cover to beat Chiz and stop Bongbong, but Leni is now in a position to do that.

Binay does seem to be the man to beat. The corruption charges weakened him for a while to allow Grace Poe and lately, Duterte to shine. But it seems his original support is coming back. It could be because of disgust with the tone of recent political discourse and/or the uncertainty in Grace Poe’s candidacy.

My opinion was often sought during reunions with relatives and friends over the holidays on where our political exercise is headed. I always say, it is difficult to say but Binay seems to have the edge. The administration will have to do a lot more to make the corruption charges resonate negatively with the voters. Again, voters seem to be saying politicians are all the same, so they are sticking with someone they know has a track record of providing for such basic needs as medical and educational expenses.

Note that Duterte, the other candidate who attracts voters across socio-economic groups, is also someone the masa can identify with by offering the security they badly need from criminality. Curiously, Duterte also seems to be the favorite of Metro Manila voters, specially the upper crust that one would expect to be Mar’s natural constituency. Poe also gets support, but her run is troubled by unresolved legal issues.

Between the three of them, the voters seem to be saying they are ready to go against the ruling elite which Mar Roxas represents. Unfortunately, voters fail to see that in going with Binay, they are perpetuating political dynasties, which are just as evil as the oligarchy. Even Duterte has a political dynasty in Davao that voters are overlooking.

Then I get asked how bad would a Binay presidency be. I say, it depends. Chances are it would mean our country will once again be seen as corrupt. Daang Matuwid had been a good image maker that made people and business analysts disregard the reality that things haven’t changed much on the ground. Customs remains as crookedly corrupt as always and not all those close to P-Noy are clean.

But as a foreign analyst once pointed out to me, it helps a great deal to have a President who is seen as clean and our views about P-Noy on his KKK gang aside, he has not been tainted with corruption himself. With Binay, the analyst explained, the corruption charges will haunt him. It also doesn’t help Binay that he has refused to confront the charges, but instead dismiss everything to politics. Makati pa lang yan billion billion na!

The only way Binay can clean his image is to address those charges frontally. He sounds ridiculous in accusing the AMLC of political motives. As part of the respected BSP bureaucracy, the AMLC folks have time and again proven themselves worthy of our trust. Between Binay and his lawyers and AMLC, I believe the AMLC folks.

It would help Binay immensely if he waived his right to secrecy in the judicial proceedings regarding the AMLC report. A public airing of what is in the AMLC reports on Binay’s bank accounts will either clear him or prove the charges right. A judge ruling in Binay’s favor will not be as credible, if the hearing was done in secret. If as Binay says the AMLC report is unfair to him, giving full publicity of his refutation of AMLC’s report is his best defense.

But seeing how Binay’s lawyers are claiming the full secrecy protection the law allows him makes him look guilty. The disappearance of close financial aide Gerry Limlingan and Binay’s long term secretary do not work for Binay in the perception battle.

Then again, Binay may be correct to assume his constituents do not care about his ethics so long as he shares enough benefits. That would justify a downgrading of international investor trust because that makes the people seem as corrupt as the leader they elected.

Binay likely thinks he can take the risk of prosecution later, but he must be President first. It may also help his cause if Binay releases his biography written by Nelson Navarro as it will provide better insights on who he really is.

Will a Binay presidency doom us to revert to our being seen as a corrupt banana republic in the eyes of the world? It does seem that way. It is back to the Erap days except that Binay may be seen as more dangerous because he is competent and as a lawyer knows what to do, except if greed overtakes caution as what might have happened in the parking building case.

It is a long shot, but Binay could also end up thinking that he is now wealthy beyond his dreams so that even his grandchildren will live in luxury for the rest of their lives. Given his age, he may want to prove he isn’t what many people think he is. There is a fragile thread of hope he ends up running a clean and effective government. Miracles do happen.

Of all the candidates, Binay is the best prepared based on academic credentials and actual executive experience running the country’s premier city. But his corrupt image will overturn the country’s positive image and make it difficult for him and the country to have credibility.

What about Mar? The surveys at this point are not too encouraging he can win in a fair election. Despite the denials, it seems the Liberals have a strategy calling for major rivals to be disqualified for one reason or another. A Comelec staffed by loyal administration appointees seems to be playing along. Imagine giving Poe just five days to get a Supreme Court relief or they will strike her name off the list of candidates. Those five days are during the Christmas holidays so it is like denying her her rights.

The plan is apparently to have Poe and Duterte disqualified quickly and not allow them to get swift relief from the Supreme Court. Disqualifying Binay on corruption charges is more difficult. In a one on one between Binay and Roxas, surveys give Binay the upper hand. But with the surveys unable to show an unbeatable trend, a Roxas victory via the mysterious PCOS machines can be made to seem credible.

From where we are now, having a credible election is the challenge. Perhaps the Supreme Court can help improve credibility when the disqualification issues are raised. The credibility of the Comelec and their PCOS machines seem to be lost for now.

This could be a crossroad moment for our democracy as we know it. All the patriotism we can muster should help deliver a happier ending than what we can now see.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco.