Government likely to miss growth goals this year

2016 macroeconomic targets up for review   

MANILA, Philippines - Macroeconomic targets for next year will be up for review this month following the release of third quarter growth data last week, officials said yesterday.

“We are trying to set one this month. I’m not sure if the date has been pinned down,” Executive Technical Board (ETB) chairman and Budget Undersecretary Laura Pascua told The STAR in a text message.

“There will be a review of macroeconomic and fiscal targets,” she said.

ETB is an inter-agency body composed of undersecretaries and sub-officials of the Department of Budget and Management and Department of Finance (DOF), the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

The group gives recommendations to growth, fiscal and monetary targets to the Development Budget Coordinating Committee (DBCC).

Economic growth accelerated to six percent in the third quarter from a revised 5.8 percent in the previous three months driven by a rebound in government spending. The expansion was also faster than last year’s 5.3 percent.

Officials, however, have scaled down expectations and are already aiming for a lower six percent expansion this year against an official seven- to eight-percent target.

The same target range has been set for 2016. The DBCC will not hold any meeting this year to review next year’s goals, Budget Secretary Florencio Abad said in a separate text message.

Pascua said she is still not sure if 2016 growth targets would be revised. Recommendation would come from NEDA, whose officials could not be reached for comment yesterday.

But DOF director Elsa Agustin said the agency was informed by NEDA that growth recommendations have still not been crafted yet.

 “We are also calling NEDA. We were told there were still no recommendations yet,” Agustin said in an e-mail.

She added the DOF is sticking with its fiscal goals next year for now, without prejudice to possible revisions later if growth targets will be revised.

“We are not changing the medium-term fiscal targets. In case there would be changes in the macroeconomic (targets), then we will run and check impact on fiscal (goals),” Agustin said.