Expected drought needs coordinated response

This time, you may not wish the rains to go away. Weather authorities across the globe are warning of a lengthened El Niño this year, and while the Philippines may experience spurts of torrential downpours every so often, these will not be enough to fill up our water reservoirs.

The warning of a drought is serious enough, having been based on forecasts that the three months of average sea temperatures in a large part of the equatorial Pacific would be higher by two degrees Celsius, a level recorded only three times in the last 65 years.

The country’s weather bureau, on the other hand, has warned of a lesser number of tropical cyclones entering the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR), an occurrence that would greatly influence the drop in water levels in dams as well as streams, rivers, and lakes.

El Niño has influenced tropical cyclones to head northward instead of crossing the PAR. A reduced number of these cyclones making landfall in Philippine territory means less amount of rainfall. This was the case of Hanna (international name Soudelor), which was classified as a Category V super typhoon and dubbed as the strongest storm this year, but which scraped only the northeastern part of the country.

Already, local water officials are anxiously monitoring levels that seem to fill up ever so slightly during those rain spurts, but dissipate perhaps even faster as the atmospheric heat evaporates the surface.

Yes, for reasons like global warming and changing world climate patterns, El Niño is back, rather quickly after only a five-year absence, threatening a vital life support of millions of Filipinos affected by the foreseen extraordinary dry spells.

Lands lie idle

Quite predictably, the expected drastic reduction in rain will affect agricultural lands that receive their water supply from irrigation canals. Rice fields, vegetable farms and fruit tree orchards will be challenged by the long drought that is only expected to ease by about May next year.

Our agriculture bureaucrats, however, are already quick to assure this should not be cause for too much worry. Stocks of rice, corn and sugar – farm commodities that majority of Filipino farmers produce – are reportedly good for the next six months.

Thankfully, there is a significant drop in the price of rice and many other agricultural commodities globally, largely resulting from lower crude prices. This would help cushion any increase in the cost of agricultural produce resulting from temporary supply shortages.

And shortages in local production can be expected. Already, many farmlands continue to be idle because the scheduled rainfall continues to be delayed. Already, there is widespread talk of water rationing for irrigation use.

Metro water affected

When rationing is discussed, this necessarily also refers to a curtailment in the supply of potable water, of which the biggest bulk would be for the drinking and sanitation needs of Metro Manila’s 12 million-strong population.

It would have helped a little if the planned new sources of drinking water for the growing metropolis had materialized in the last couple of years since this would have augmented the dwindling supply levels from the current sources.

Things being as they are now, water rationing is a big possibility, only to be augmented by a bolstered campaign to save on water. Expect pumps, water tanks and new deep wells to be in vogue in the next few months, if the water levels dip to really critical lows.

Dengue rise

There are also new warnings now of a fresh outbreak in dengue fever cases across Southeast Asia, which would be affected by the El Niño phenomenon. Cases of dengue fever reportedly come with warming of the ocean and elevated land temperatures that allow mosquitoes to reproduce faster and spread dengue virus more efficiently.

This finding is backed by research from 18 years of monthly dengue surveillance reports across Southeast Asia that had affected some 3.5 million in eight countries. During this period, two severe El Niño seasons had occurred.

Dengue fever caused by that mosquito-borne virus is already at epidemic levels in the country even without El Niño. Thousands of Filipinos are affected annually in the Philippines in recent years, contributing to one of the highest mortality rates in the world.

The World Health Organization has issued warnings the global incidence of dengue has grown dramatically in recent decades, putting at risk about half of the world’s population.

Power outages

Of course, when water supplies are low, the whole country’s power supply capability is compromised. Traditionally, whenever the reservoirs drop to critical levels and rationing commences, hydropower plants are affected.

With the still precarious power generation levels of the country’s grid, a curtailment of generation capability from the hydroelectric power plants can cause widespread outages, if rotating brownouts are not implemented.

Lack of coordinated response

In the face of all the possible effects of a worsened El Niño, there seems to be little coordinated response from our lawmakers and concerned bureaucrats to calm our anxieties.

The cost of El Niño alone on rice farming could easily reach P15 billion, and combined with all other affected agricultural produce, could badly dent the country’s economic productivity to bring down growth from the more optimistic seven-eight percent to between six and 6.5 percent.

It’s time to talk about firmer plans to mitigate all the serious effects this current El Niño is expected to cause. If it does not turn out to be as bad, that would be well and good. Rest assured though, drought preparations would always come in handy sometime in the future.

An aside: If we had seen local government units readying rafts and other flood disaster equipment in recent years, be prepared for water-bearing vehicles when things turn bad. Times are indeed changing, and in the midst of all the uncertainties that Mother Nature has shown us in recent years, we just have to be prepared.

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