Adjustment in maintenance not enough to avert power shortage next summer

MANILA, Philippines - The consortium behind the deep water gas-to-power Malampaya project will not be able to move its maintenance schedule before or after the summer months but the operators of the 735-megawatt Pagbiglao coal-fired power plant in Quezon and the 630-MW Masinloc coal-fired power plant in Zambales have agreed to adjust their scheduled shutdown by a month, data from the Department of Energy (DOE) showed.

Still, the adjustments in maintenance schedule of the two plants (moved to April instead of March for the Masinloc plant and to June instead of May for the Pagbilao plant) are not enough to avert a power shortage in the summer of 2015 as the Luzon grid still needs 321 to 351 MW in total additional capacity.

The required additional capacity is based on the 800 MW projected additional capacity required for summer which includes the additional 200 MW that is needed should a mild El Nino weather disturbance occur next year, data also showed.

Based on DOE’s estimates, the 800 MW minus 449 to 479 MW in committed capacity that are expected to come in leaves a requirement of 321 to 351 MW that has yet to be filled.

The 449 to 479 MW is expected to come from the uprating of the Limay power plant by local power firm Millennium Energy, which is expected to provide additional 36 MW in capacity and from the 100-MW Avion plant of First Gen Corp., which is expected to come in by April next year and 83 MW in committed capacity from the Interruptible Load Program (ILP).

The ILP is a government program wherein large energy users can sell their excess energy to the grid to augment supply.

While the government is counting 166 MW in ILP capacity from participants, it said the actual turnout could be slashed by half based on previous experience in tapping ILP participants.

The DOE also took into account some 180 MW in additional capacity that power distributor Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) would contract on its own initiative.