News Analysis: ADB trims down Phl GDP growth forecast

MANILA, Philippines (Xinhua) - The Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB) has trimmed down its 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines from its April projection of 6. 4 percent to 6.2 percent.

In an update of the Asian Development Outlook 2014, the bank's flagship publication released today, the ADB also said that the Philippines' GDP would grow by 6.4 percent in 2015, lower than the 6.7 percent it projected in April.

The ADB said that the Philippine economy will "undershoot" earlier forecasts for 2014 and 2015 due to "unexpectedly low government spending, higher inflation and related monetary tightening measures" that the government has undertaken.

Government spending, the ADB said, grew by only 0.9 percent in the first half of 2014 compared to 11.1 percent in the same period last year.

The ADB report, however, cited some positive developments in the Philippines. "Consumption and investment remain strong, and exports are recovering," said ADB Country Director for the Philippines Richard Bolt in launching the report.

Bolt said that "accelerating infrastructure projects, taking measures to strengthen competition, and increasing access to finance can boost growth and create jobs."

The ADB said that foreign direct investment, though low compared with other countries in the region, jumped 77 percent in the first half of 2014 to $3.6 billion.

The ADB report also noted that poverty incidence in the Philippines fell 3.0 percentage points to 24.9 percent in the first half of 2013 - the latest period for which data is available - from the same period in 2012. But it said further efforts are needed to raise productivity and create jobs.

The ADB kept its forecasts for GDP growth in the Asian region at 6.2 percent in 2014 and 6.4 percent in 2015. The region grew 6. 1 percent in 2013. Developing Asia comprises the 45 ADB member countries.

The ADB said that fiscal policy is expected to be more supportive of economic growth in the Philippines in 2015. "The government's proposed 2015 budget will increase spending by 15.1 percent over 2014, with increases for social services, infrastructure, and investment in agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing," the bank said.

Earlier, the World Bank also blamed weak government spending and monetary policy tightening for revising downward its growth forecast for the Philippines for this year and 2015.

The Washington-based lender said it expects the Philippine economy to grow by 6.4 percent in 2014, down from its previous June forecast of 6.6 percent. Similarly, the GDP growth in 2015 is expected to hit 6.7 percent, down from June's 6.9-percent projection. In January, the bank said it expected the Philippine economy to grow by 6.5 percent in 2014 and 7.1 percent in 2015.

"After recording strong growth in the last two years, Philippine economic growth decelerated to 5.7 percent in the first quarter of 2014," the World Bank said. It added that while the services sector and private construction remain to be the main drivers of growth, their contribution was muted by weak government spending.

The Philippine government is aiming for a 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent year-round growth for 2014. But the economy grew by only 5. 7 percent in the first quarter and 5.9 percent in the second quarter.

The World Bank said the government of Philippine President Benigno Aquino III should pursue more structural reforms and invest more in human and physical capital. "Key structural reforms include protecting property rights, promoting more competition, and simplifying regulations," the bank said.

It added that the government's plan to spend big on infrastructure by as much as 5 percent of GDP should come with new sources of revenues.

"With further economic reforms, especially in areas which will have more impact on the lives of the poor, the government can help put the country on an irreversible path of inclusive growth and meet the jobs challenge," the World Bank said.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged the Philippine government to fast-track infrastructure spending and open up the sector to wider competition, including foreigners, in order to sustain economic growth in the long term.

Changyong Rhee, the IMF's director for Asia-Pacific, told a press conference here on Wednesday that the Philippines was well positioned to weather any effects of a potential interest rate increase by the United States post-Federal Reserve tapering.

The IMF was still keeping its growth rate forecasts for the Philippines of 6.2 percent for 2014 and 6.5 percent for 2015 ahead of updated projections to be released in the first week of October, Rhee said. "At this moment, we believe the Philippine economy is still on a good track to achieve the 6.2 percent goal for this year," he added.