Banks expect higher inflation in July

MANILA, Philippines - Inflation could have accelerated anew in July after slightly easing in June on still-elevated food prices, UK-based Barclays and the research arm of Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co. (Metrobank) said in separate reports.

Barclays said the rate could have settled at 4.6 percent in July, faster than the 4.4 percent seen in June.

 “Adverse weather, higher oil prices likely to push inflation modestly higher,” the bank said in its Emerging Markets Weekly report.

Typhoon Glenda (international name: Rammasun) devastated Metro Manila and nearby Luzon provinces last month, killing 98 people and injuring 630. The damage to infrastructure has reached P1.61 billion as of July 24, while P9.19 billion worth of crops, livestock, fisheries, and agricultural facilities were reported destroyed.

Inflation has eased to 4.4 percent in June from a 30-month high of 4.5 percent in May as lower housing and utility rates tempered the continuous rise in food prices.

Official July inflation data will be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority on August 5, Tuesday.

Metrobank Research, meanwhile, forecast the rate to have climbed to 4.5 percent in July.

 “Prices remained high in July, with a broad annual increase in food prices for the month,” Mabellene Reynaldo, research analyst at Metrobank, said in the latest Weekly Views from the Metro.

She noted however that a slower annual price growth as well as a high base in the same month last year could have curbed the “steep rise” in the index.

 “Rice prices in July remained steady but still elevated, especially as the country has entered its lean season for the commodity. Other food groups likewise posted faster year-on-year increases, with vegetables showing the highest jump given lower supply amid recent typhoons,” Reynaldo recounted.

 “On the other hand, oil prices dropped month-on-month, consequently showing a slower rise year-on-year. Supply worries waned as Libyan oil entered the market and as insurgent forces in Iraq failed to disrupt oil supply and exports from the region remained steady,” she continued.

The banks’ projections were both within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 4.1 percent to 4.9 percent forecast for July.

The central bank last week said the forecast range reflects the higher prices of rice and electricity and the decline in the prices of a number of agricultural products and lower pump prices for the month.

Inflation has so far averaged 4.2 percent in June, above the midpoint of the BSP’s three to five percent target range.

Monetary authorities last week hiked key policy rates by 25 basis points, the first time they adjusted the overnight borrowing and overnight lending rates since October 2012.