JICA expert tired of studies

Dr. Shizuo Owata of the Japan International Cooperation Agency or JICA has been doing studies on our transportation system since the early ’90s. He had been part of one study after another through the years.

Guess what? He is tired of doing all these studies, he told his audience of top business managers last Tuesday. Speaking before a forum organized by the Management Association of the Philippines (MAP), Dr. Owata said there is nothing new about our traffic congestion, but the situation is getting worse.

Dr. Owata said that he had also worked in Vietnam, planning their transport sector. His experience in Manila was helpful, he said but things are moving faster in Vietnam. He sounded frustrated that, in our case, none of the studies he participated in ever saw the light of day.

But he is giving it one more try. Sometime this week, he is scheduled to present another comprehensive transport plan to Malacañang. He gave us a preview of his presentation, complete with costs. He calls it a Dream Plan. I guess by calling it a dream, he has also resigned himself to the reality that nothing much will happen still.

Money is not a problem, he declared. That’s what I have been saying too… and indeed, confirmed by Budget Secretary Butch Abad to me on several occasions. What then, Dr. Owata asked, is the problem?

He didn’t answer that question, I guess, to be polite. But we all know why nothing happened to all the plans for which the Japanese taxpayers paid quite a bit through the years through JICA. We have been wasting Japanese foreign aid by consigning all those studies to rot in some bureaucrat’s drawers.

But the question of Dr Owata is far from being merely rhetorical. There is an answer, however shameful it is.

We have failed to implement several past transport studies because the guys in DOTC, or whatever government agency was responsible for implementation through the years are 1) incompetent; 2) corrupt; 3) lacked political will needed to carry out projects or 4) all of the above.

Indeed, Dr. Owata said Filipinos need not look to other countries for ideas or inspiration on how to structure a good transport system. “Just go back to your history,” Dr. Owata advised, “go back 100 years to the tranvia or street cars of Meralco.”

Manila, Dr. Owata recalled, once had a good mass transit system in a well designed urban area. That was circa 1920s when the city’s population was just 300,000. We had 85 kilometers of rail lines then, Dr. Owata said, more than the 50 kilometers we have now. The tranvia system itself was described as state-of-the-art and second to none in East Asia.

In those days, the JICA consultant reminisced, there was “strategic integrated development by the private sector… a suburban line, housing development and reliable power supply. Manila in those days had a diversified urban transport mode with the tranvia covering 40 percent of total demand. Manila had good traffic management too, Dr. Owata added.

Today, the JICA consultant said we have to think in terms of Mega Manila to include Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite and even a Greater Metro Manila to include Region III and IV.

He identified the three major problems of Metro Manila as traffic congestion, natural disasters (flood, earthquake, typhoon, landslide, etc.). And one cannot think of a transport system independent of such things as land use and environment. These are all inter-related.

Zeroing in on the topic at hand, traffic management, the JICA consultant observed that traffic congestion in the metro area is now everywhere and throughout the day. There is no more peak time or rush hour. Most of the day and well into midnight is now peak and congested, specially EDSA and C-5.

Metro Manila, with its population of 12 million, is one of the more densely populated major cities in the world. Metro Manila has a density of 191 persons per hectare. Compare that with Tokyo’s 146; Seoul’s 170; Jakarta’s 131 and Shanghai’s 124.

Because of our high poverty rate, most of Metro Manila’s mass of humanity live in hazardous areas like banks of esteros, railway tracks, under bridges and flyovers and even on the rocks of the breakwater on Manila Bay, etc. There is no place within the metro area where these people in hazard zones can be properly relocated, he said. That’s why a good mass transit system is needed, the Japanese consultant observed.

Back in 2006, the JICA consultant pointed out, the backlog for affordable housing was already in the vicinity of 800,000 households. Some 300,000 households needed to be relocated and another 500,000 waiting to be upgraded.

By 2030, the population of Mega Manila is expected to increase from the current 12 million to 29 million. In other words, the problems we now have with regards to housing, mass transit, environmental degradation among others are only going to get worse.

Dr. Owata’s Dream Plan for Metro Manila is anchored on two propositions: Metro Manila’s problems can no longer be solved within Metro Manila; and Region III and IV must work out effective ways to maximize positive impact of Metro Manila and contribute to mitigate Metro Manila’s problems.

His Dream Plan has five objectives expressed in terms of five NOs: No traffic congestion; No household living in high hazard risk areas; No barrier for seamless mobility; No excessive transport cost burden for low income groups and No air pollution. He is indeed dreaming, right?

Dr. Owata said we must think in terms of the whole expanded region. He identified the key interventions needed: integration, inclusiveness and innovation.

More specifically, this means an integrated transport and urban and rural mobility; disaster preparedness; environment and high quality public space; affordable housing and land use management.

He said we need new town developments outside the inner city that is connected by mass transport infrastructure. He suggests maximizing the capacity and development opportunities of the three major ports in Luzon.

As for an airport gateway, Dr. Owata thinks Clark is too far and the fast train option not practical and too expensive. He is thinking more in terms of constructing a brand new airport alternative to NAIA in Sangley and connecting it by a Golden Gate-type bridge to Manila.

He gave us details of his Dream Plan and an estimate of the price tag. He sees a total investment cost up to 2030 of P2,293 billion or $57.3 billion. But he sees a payback of P1,200 billion a year or full recovery in two years.

Dr. Owata assures that money is not a problem. “Funding capacity is sufficient to cover all selected projects for the short term and the medium term,” he said. He based his optimism on the statement of the Aquino administration that it will spend five percent of GDP on infrastructure.  

He gave us a detailed short term action plan which included: completion of missing links (flyovers, interchanges, bridges); rehab main urban roads; complete NLEX-SLEX connection including port access; implement CALA expressway, C6 ext Lakeshore dike road; NAIA expressway.

For urban rail, he listed: completion of committed projects (Line 1 extension, Line 2 extension, Line 3 expansion); improve connectivity among urban rail lines; implement north south commuter line (Malolos-Calamba) and MRT 7; EDSA subway and further expansion of main lines and development of secondary lines.

Dr. Owata also recommended the development of BRT lines ahead of urban rail lines for specific corridors (Quezon Ave, C5, Commonwealth Ave, etc.); modernization of bus/jeepney vehicles facilities and O &M; improve and expand sidewalks and pedestrian facilities.

For traffic management, he called for strengthening enforcement capacity and the conduct of a comprehensive traffic management study.

For airports and ports, he recommended the implementation of committed improvement packages for NAIA and Clark; place a cap for expansion of Manila ports and facilitate diversion to Batangas and Subic ports through incentives.

The problem I see with Dr. Owata’s Dream Plan is that it depends on a competent bureaucracy and a national leadership with a will to see the dream realized. I also see opposition from the usual vested interests, like those who now have a hold on the Manila port, for example.

What JICA produced is a roadmap which our government can implement. But as local transport expert Rene Santiago puts it, the Dream plan is not feasible…  for example, 300 kilometers of rail lines are needed in 15 years and DOTC is not likely to build even one kilometer of new rail line before 2016. Hopeless!

Oh well… we can dream, can’t we?

Conversation

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Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco