Economists expect faster inflation this year

MANILA, Philippines - Private sector economists see faster inflation this year but prices are nonetheless forecast to remain manageable, a survey by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

A poll of analysts from 21 banks last September showed mean inflation forecasts of 3.4 percent this year, 3.9 percent next year and four percent in 2014.

These marked increases from the result of the June survey when economists saw 3.1-percent inflation for 2012 and 3.6 percent for 2013 and 2014.

They also compared to BSP’s own forecasts of 3.3 percent, 3.9 percent and 3.1 percent for 2012, 2013 and 2014, respectively. Nevertheless, all outlooks fell within the BSP’s three- to five-percent target range.

“Analysts attributed their upward adjustment of inflation forecasts on higher global commodity prices,” BSP said.

“Food prices are projected to increase on account of adverse weather conditions in major commodity producing countries while energy prices are also seen to advance amid renewed tensions in the Middle East,” it explained.

Storms intensified by the southwest monsoon in August caused supply chain disruptions, pushing inflation to 3.8 percent that month. Domestic oil prices also inched up in the third quarter compared to the April to June period, BSP data showed.

Gasoline prices increased P6.55 per liter, kerosene, P5.95 per liter, while diesel and cooking gas went up P5.10 per liter and P4.70 per liter.

“However, the continued appreciation of the peso is expected to temper the effects of imported inflation,” the central bank said.