Dangerous standoff

In his address to the UN General Assembly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued his clearest and most unequivocal warning on the continuing Iranian nuclear development program by proposing that a red line be drawn on the road taken by Iran to manufacture its own nuclear weapon, beyond which, by implication, that country would invite the destruction of its nuclear facilities.

To illustrate his statement, he held up a diagram of the bomb with a fuse and delineated the 90- percent mark as his red line representing the 9/10 completion of technical progress in Iran’s capacity to produce nuclear weapons. He predicted that such mark would be reached by mid-spring or next summer at the very latest, i.e. one year from his General Assembly speech.

 It is significant to note that some Israeli leaders like Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Mossad chief Meir Dagan as well as more than one-half of Israelis are against a military strike against Iran at this moment. Mr. Netanyahu characterized the Iranian leaders as persons with “a death wish, like suicide bombers.” Apparently contradicting himself, he contended that they could still be brought to their senses by warning them of the consequences of stepping across his red line.

President Barack Obama spoke before the same body two days before the Israeli PM and declared that a nuclear Iran “is not a challenge that can be contained. It would threaten the elimination of Israel, the security of the Gulf and the stability of the global economy... that is why the United States will do what we must to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”

I do not subscribe to the depiction of the Iranian leadership as obsessed with death and ready to immolate themselves and their country. Iran is a nation with a civilization and culture dating back to thousands of years. I find it hard to believe that they are motivated and directed by unthinking zealots ready to commit national suicide. I assume rather that they are rational actors who base their actions on self- preservation and the promotion of their self- interest. They have embarked on their nuclear development program with a clear awareness of the political, security and economic risks (the pain of sanctions is starting to be felt, particularly by its currency which has recently plunged to record low levels.)

My sense is that they recognize the perils of the path they have taken and are not ready to cross the red line which they have themselves identified. But they have embarked on this road because they believe it is the most effective way of being seen by the region and the wider international community that they are a vital actor to contend with.

My reading of the statements of Messrs. Netanyahu and Obama taken together is that the two leaders were singing from the same hymn book, with the Israeli giving the details of the warning (the progress of the nuclear program, the time frame and the logical consequence of Iran’s refusal to heed the warning) and the US leader stressing the broader, global implications of a continuation of the program. Their message to Tehran is quite clear: “cease and desist or face the consequences.”  Perhaps that is why Iran has agreed to negotiations with the US after the presidential elections.

Although it is not a major player on the global stage, the Philippines has a huge stake in the unfolding drama of the Iranian nuclear program. Millions of Filipinos reside and work in the Gulf countries that President Obama believes will be at risk in the event that a nuclear bomb is produced by Tehran and military action is taken to destroy such bomb manufacturing capability. I am not predicting that military action is inevitable. I am simply pointing out that the situation is complicated and dangerous. And I trust that our planners at the Department of Foreign Affairs, the Department of Energy, the PNOC and the Department of Labor are closely monitoring the Iranian nuclear impasse in the event that things get really and irretrievably bad.

Zuellig building: International recognition

I was delighted to learn that the new 33-story Zuellig building, located at the intersection of Makati Avenue and Paseo de Roxas, has been chosen as one of the top three buildings in the “Best Office and Business Development” category of the internationally renowned MIPIM Asia Awards. This is the first time the Philippines has been nominated. The other buildings competing for Gold, Silver and Bronze are 50 Connaught Road Central in Hong Kong and Tianjin Global Finance Center. For the first time this year, MIPIM will also determine the winner of the “Your Choice Award” through online voting.  I strongly encourage you to vote for the Zuellig building before the Nov. 5 deadline. The winner will be announced on Nov. 8.

To vote for the Zuellig Building, visit www.mipim.com/en/mipim-asia/programme/mipim-asia-awards-voting/.