Is P-Noy getting China approach right?

It may be premature to say this but I am hopeful P-Noy is finally getting his administration’s approach to China on the right track. His recent order to his officials not to telegraph our punches is correct but it should have been given or maybe it should have been understood from the start. And the order is most applicable to P-Noy himself.

I was shocked to read the Reuters report of their exclusive interview of P-Noy on my Facebook newsfeed quoting P-Noy talking about asking Americans to fly spy planes over the disputed areas of the West Philippine Sea. Anobuzz! Kaya nga tinawag na spy planes… dapat secret. Fly those planes if we must but the plan to do so shouldn’t have been announced.

Of course China was irritated as expected but I suspect the professionals in China’s foreign ministry were more amused than pissed. P-Noy talking publicly about spy planes is so diplomatically amateurish and merely exposed Malacanang’s pathetic lack of experience.

It didn’t help that Ricky Carandang and other Palace spokespersons tried to finesse the presidential blunder by trying to minimize the importance of spy planes. Ricky said using Google Earth amounts to the same thing, as if to say that nothing is secret these days anyway. If that is so, why would the President talk to Reuters about requesting Americans to provide the spy plane service?

Beyond risking the danger of war, statements that are not well thought out cause unintended consequences, something our banana planters and the hotel owners in Boracay, Bohol and Palawan and the local airlines can confirm. And when tensions are already high, it is easy to misunderstand things.

I am glad that finally, it would seem that the Palace has realized they cannot conduct diplomacy by press release. The exchange of provocative statements over the past three months or so only inflamed the extremists in China and here. It dangerously increased the temperature and made it more difficult to sell a negotiated compromise without losing face.

For a long while, I had this feeling that even the Department of Foreign Affairs was not prepared to deal with China. The fact that we didn’t have an ambassador to China at that time made the role of the Manila home office critical. I realize there is a need to strongly assert our rights but the secretary of foreign affairs should always assume the role of the adult in the room and urge all concerned to be cautious with their statements and allow diplomacy, usually conducted behind the scenes, to deliver a solution.

It didn’t help that the Foreign Secretary’s strong US orientation showed. Frequent references to our mutual defense treaty with the US sounded like a threat to call on Uncle Sam’s 7th fleet if all else fails. I also got the feeling there was less than earnest efforts on the part of DFA to succeed diplomatically because Uncle Sam is there anyway. 

But all that are in the past. Our government is finally learning the fine art of diplomacy. One good development is a private briefing of P-Noy by a group of Filipino China experts that included one of the President’s own brothers-in-law who, I was told, proved quite knowledgeable and reasonable. I am not surprised the briefing was organized by the President’s political adviser and not by the DFA. The professional diplomats have been very protective of their turf even if, as we now know, dealing with China isn’t an area where they have a strong expertise.

In fact, they were unable to present a good alternative to the President’s original choice as ambassador to China from among their active ranks of diplomats. Their first two nominees failed to satisfy the President and I can see why. They had to revive a retired former ambassador to China as the best they can offer and indeed, she is.

During a despedida dinner for Ambassador Sonia Brady, I was impressed with her grasp of the problems she is now facing in Beijing. She knew she will have to muster everything she has learned in her 35 years of diplomatic experience to accomplish her mission. She also has the added handicap that her superiors at the home office seem to regard China as an enemy. The reality is, China is a regional superpower we need to have good relations with.

I am also worried about Ambassador Brady’s seemingly frail health, given her responsibilities and Beijing’s less than healthful air. She said she just had a stroke last January but got clearance from her doctor to accept the assignment. This early, I think it will be good to assign a deputy who has extensive China experience to help lighten her work load and should it be required, have the gravitas to take over at a moment’s notice without missing a beat.

It is also good to know that P-Noy has finally convened key congressional leaders and consulted them on how to handle the China situation as I earlier suggested in this column. Certainly, it is not fair for P-Noy, who is untrained in the art of diplomacy, to carry the entire burden himself. Surely, there is plenty that someone with the experience of Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile can contribute in the formulation of our China policy.

Getting ASEAN to back us up on China is the other big diplomatic mission of DFA. In this regard, we seem to have good news. Senior ASEAN officials have reportedly agreed on the key elements in a Code of Conduct among claimants in the disputed West Philippine Sea (also called South China Sea) and to negotiate as a bloc with China. This was a sticking point when the ASEAN officials last met. Cambodia, Indonesia and Malaysia showed understandable reluctance to take on China.

China does not want to negotiate with ASEAN on this matter and would rather talk to us and Vietnam on a bilateral basis. Hopefully, the regional pressure on China will make them more reasonable at the negotiating table.

In 2002, ASEAN and China signed a document that calls on all claimants to exercise restraint and stop new occupation in the West Philippine Sea. But it’s non-binding nature and lack of sanctions renders the accord toothless. We have taken the position that for such a code to be effective, it must be credible, binding and enforceable.

But we must all realize that diplomacy takes time specially after positions have hardened and nationalist sentiments stoked on both sides of the pond. I still think we ought to approach the talks with an open mind and not put any preconditions on what could or could not be done.

Because a final solution will take time, it may be necessary to adopt some pragmatic approaches in the meantime, both to ease pressure and to assure early harvest of benefits. I am thinking along the lines of setting sovereignty claims of all parties aside for the moment without giving these up and allow joint exploitation of whatever resources may be there in the disputed areas. Manny Pangilinan is on to something that just might work.

The over riding consideration of our diplomatic moves is to ensure a peaceful outcome. War will solve nothing and is definitely an option that not one of the contending parties can really afford. I am glad that the Americans have apparently reiterated this view in private talks with our officials as well as in their public statements.

Old fashioned diplomacy is finally being resorted to with P-Noy’s order for officials to keep their mouths shut. This is how it should have been to begin with.

Dynamite

Marilyn Mana-ay Robles sent this one.

A body builder named Ellis takes off his shirt and the blonde says, “What a great chest you have!”

He tells her, “That’s 100 lbs. of dynamite, Baby.”

He takes off his pants and the blonde says, “What massive calves you have!”

The body builder tells her, “That’s 100 lbs. of dynamite, Baby.”

He then removes his underwear and the blonde goes running out of the apartment screaming in fear. The body builder puts his clothes back on and chases after her. He catches up to her and asks why she ran out of the apartment like that.

The blonde replies, “I was afraid to be around all that dynamite after seeing how short the fuse was!”

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco