Phl economy seen growing 6-7% next year

MANILA, Philippines - The economy is projected to grow by six to seven percent next year and accelerate to 7.5 to 8.5 percent in 2016, according to Budget and Management Secretary Florencio Abad, citing the latest macroeconomic assumptions approved by the interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC).

The Aquino administration sees the economy expanding by 6.5 to 7.5 percent in 2014, seven to eight percent in 2015 and by 7.5 to 8.5 percent by the end of its term in 2016.

The economic growth projections are anchored on expectations that the country’s external trade would fully recover in the next four years.

Exports are projected to grow by 12 percent in 2013 and in 2014 and by 14 percent in 2015 and 2016 from the 10 percent growth projection for the year.

Similarly, imports are projected to grow by 14 percent next year, according to the latest macroeconomic assumptions.

Imports are projected to grow by 15 percent in 2014 and by 16 percent in 2015 and 2016.

The latest growth forecasts are also anchored on expectations that inflation would remain benign at three to five percent from this year to 2014 and at two to four percent in 2015 and 2016.

According to the DBCC, growth will be fueled by the government’s infrastructure spending, dollar remittances from overseas Filipinos and steady growth of manufacturing, services and tourism sectors.

However, for the rest of the year, Abad said the government would retain its official growth forecast range of five to six percent despite the higher-than-expected performance of the economy in the first quarter of the year.

“The numbers are good. The first quarter growth is good but we will remain conservative,” Abad said.

The Philippine economy, as measured by GDP grew by 6.4 percent in the first quarter of the year, surpassing analysts’ expectations and beating year-ago figures of 4.9 percent.