NSCB sees higher Q2 growth

Manila, Philippines -  The country’s leading economic indicators point to an overall improvement in economic growth in the second quarter of the year, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) said yesterday.

The NSCB said the composite leading economic indicator (LEI) continued its upward direction in the second quarter 2012 to 0.125 from a revised 0.064 recorded in the first quarter of the year.

The LEI system is a forward-looking study of the behavior of economic indicators that consistently move upward or downward before the actual expansion or contraction of overall economic activity. However, it is limited to the use of forecast data for some of the indicators that are not yet available at the time of the LEI computation.

After a decline in the third quarter of 2011, the LEI has accelerated three quarters in a row, strongly indicating a continuation of the positive outlook for the country’s economy, the NSCB said.

Of the 11 indicators that make up the composite LEI, seven contributed positively. These are visitor arrivals, number of new businesses, stock price index, money supply, wholesale price index, hotel occupancy rate and terms of trade index.

Put together, the combined share of positive contributors totaled 78.9 percent in the second quarter of the year. However, this was lower than the 82.1 percent recorded in the first quarter of the year.

On the other hand, the negative contributors accounted for 21.2 percent of the index.

These factors are the consumer price index, foreign exchange rate, total merchandise imports, and electric energy consumption. These negative contributors accounted for 21.1 percent of total contribution.

For the second quarters, some indicators shifted direction in contribution from the first quarter of the year, either from positive to negative territories or vice-verse, the NSCB said.

“For the second quarter of 2012 LEI, five indicators shifted direction in contribution from the first quarter of 2012, namely: consumer price index, electric energy consumption, and total merchandise imports, from positive to negative, and money supply and terms of trade index, from negative to positive,” the NSCB said.