Pork seen in short supply

MANILA, Philippines - Pork is likely to be in short supply for the second half of 2011 and the first half of 2012, while broiler meat supply for the second half of this year may be short by 5,498 metric tons for the forecast demand of 382,676 metric tons, according to the quarterly report of the Livestock and Poultry Information and Early Warning System Project.

According to the LP-EWS, supply deficits for pork of 8,060 and 33,870 metric tons are likely to happen in the third and fourth quarter of this year.

As for poultry, a surplus of 6,911 metric tons is foreseen in the third quarter of this year, but a deficit of 10,801 metric tons may occur in the fourth quarter.

For the first half of 2012, the LPI-EWS forecast of broiler meat supply at 375,882 metric tons may not be enough to cover the point demand forecast of 404,617 metric tons.

The LPI-EWS projects that while there will be sufficient pork supply in the first quarter of 2012, a deficit of 47,590 metric tons is expected in second quarter of 2012.

According to the LPI-EWS, for the third quarter of this year, pork supply may be sufficient if it reaches the point forecast with demand at the lower forecast.

As for poultry, the LPI-EWS quarterly report said that for the second half of 2011, upper forecast of broiler meat supply may result in a surplus of 9,759 metric tons given that the demand reaches its upper forecast of 412,814 metric tons.

The forecast band for the fourth quarter of this year shows that upper supply forecast will be enough given the point demand forecast; but there may be a deficit of 4,202 metric tons if the upper forecast for demand takes place.

In the 1st half of 2012, upper forecast of broiler meat supply is sufficient given the point forecast of demand.

However, given the upper forecasts of broiler meat supply and demand, a deficit of 16,931 metric tons is foreseen.