WB warns Manila, other Asian megacities on earthquake risks

MANILA, Philippines - A World Bank study has warned that the city of Manila – and most of Metro Manila – lies dangerously close to the tectonic fault lines that are showing seismic activity and generally result in earthquakes, along with other megacities in Asia like Jakarta, Penang and Tokyo-Kobe.

Based on studies funded by the World Bank, in 90 percent of all earthquake fatalities worldwide since 1960, over 1.1 million people were Asians.

The most recent 7.7-magnitude quake off Padang in Sumatra, Indonesia are all related to the volcanic eruption and the subsequent tsunami that killed more than 300 persons, with hundreds more missing.

“Asia’s huge, rapidly developing megacities contain some of the world’s tallest buildings and mega slums, and most do not have an earthquake mitigation program. An 8.5-magnitude quake in one of these cities could easily leave between a quarter to a million dead,” the report categorically stated.

Asia’s historic vulnerability to killer quakes is made more acute today by the fact that 11 of the world’s top 15 megacities with populations over 15 million are now in Asia. These cities are huge, rapidly developing urban conglomerates, containing some of the world’s tallest buildings—alongside mega slums and informal settlements, most of them on land unsafe for human habitation, the study cited.

One of the world’s leading earthquake expert and engineer, Peter Yanev, was quoted in the report that the severity of an earthquake’s impact in a megacity of millions, with poor housing or modern skyscrapers built without implementation of proper building codes, could be devastating.

 “Depending on the location, an 8.5-magnitude quake could easily leave between a quarter to a million dead and completely collapse between one and five percent of buildings, damaging more than 50 percent, near an epicenter,” Yanev said.

The report lays out immediate, short-term and long-term measures that can be taken to build resilience and mitigate the impact of earthquakes. Among these are: start with a risk scenario of losses to the city; earthquake mapping and zoning for adequate building codes; do a cost-benefit analysis for quake-proofing buildings; where should the money be spent; and, evaluate the target buildings.

“Sharing earthquake mitigation expertise and helping take the policy dialogue forward with governments and partners is an important part of our work in the region,” Abhas Jha, who manages the World Bank’s East Asia Pacific Disaster Risk Management program, said.

Jha said partnerships, like the one with the Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management and others, help evolve tools to assess the risks of earthquakes and form measures to reduce them. Big investments are not needed to save a large number of lives, rather community awareness and effective action plans for building safer cities.