Economic indicators point to another robust quarter

MANILA, Philippines - The country’s early economic indicators continued to improve in the second quarter of the year, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) reported.

The NSCB said the composite leading economic indicator (LEI) posted a second consecutive increase for the quarter, improving to negative 0.348 in the second quarter from a revised negative 0.533 in the first quarter of 2010.

This marks the second steepest ascent of the composite LEI series since the third quarter of 1986, with the first one occurring in the first quarter of 2008.

According to the NSCB, the number of positive contributors as concurrently estimated in this period went down to eight, compared to nine in the first quarter of the year.

At the same time, however, the NSCB said that “while the number of positive contributors for this quarter is one less than the previous, the combined share increased impressively to 98.9 percent from only 51 percent in the previous quarter, as the slopes of the positive contributors steepened significantly during the quarter.”

Among the positive contributors are total merchandise imports, consumer price index, wholesale price index, tourist arrivals, stock price index, electric energy consumption, hotel occupancy rate, and money supply.

The negative contributors, beginning with the largest negative contributor are: Number of new businesses, terms of trade index, and foreign exchange rate. The negative contributors accounted for only 1.1 percent of total contribution.

The LEI, which measures the contribution of each of the 11 indicators, is measured through the combined effects of the direction such as the slope or change of the cycle component of each indicator and  the correlation of their cycle components with that of the reference series.

In the first quarter of the year, the economy grew by 7.3 percent, the strongest since the 8.3 percent recorded in the second quarter of 2007 and significantly better than the 0.5 percent recorded in the same quarter of 2009.