Disaster: Are we ready for a big one?

From Asia to Africa to the US, Europe and Latin America, natural disasters one after another are happening all over the world, causing untold losses to lives and property. In April last year, a 6.3 magnitude earthquake that hit central Italy and affected 26 towns killed more than 200 and left tens of thousands homeless as close to 10,000 buildings were damaged. A cursory look at the tragedies in 2009 would indicate that September seems to be one of the most devastating periods: a 7.1 magnitude earthquake hits the populous island of Java in Indonesia; fast-moving floods caused by heavy rains sweep across Istanbul in Turkey; an underwater 8.0 magnitude earthquake triggers a tsunami in Samoa and American Samoa; and on Sept. 30, another earthquake recorded at 7.6 magnitude hits Sumatra in Indonesia, leaving more than 1,000 people dead.

In the Philippines, the huge amount of rainwater dumped by typhoon Ondoy on Sept. 26 causes the worst flooding to ever hit Metro Manila in about 50 years, killing more than 400 people, rendering hundreds of thousands homeless, with damage to infrastructure and agriculture placed at more than P20 billion. This was followed by typhoon Pepeng that triggered floods and landslides in Luzon including Mountain Province. In West Africa, floods affected millions of people across 12 countries while the October flooding in the Southern part of India – said to be the worst in the last 100 years – killed 250 people and rendered 500,000 homeless.

As if those disasters were not enough, the world witnessed another devastation in Haiti due to a 7 magnitude earthquake on Jan. 12, killing more than 200,000, aggravating the already hobbled economy of a country considered as one of the poorest, if not the poorest, in the Western Hemisphere. And now comes the 8.8 magnitude earthquake in Chile believed to be the biggest so far, which has claimed the lives of more than 700 people as of this writing. Chile has a history of devastating earthquakes that average 7 or higher on the Richter scale, with the highest magnitude in modern history recorded at 9.5 in 1960. The recent temblor also triggered tsunami waves racing across the ocean floor at a maximum speed of 550 miles per hour, in turn prompting oceanographers to issue dire warnings to Pacific nations including the Philippines. Fortunately, no catastrophic tidal waves occurred, much to the relief of residents in coastal areas along Batanes, Aurora, Quezon, Isabela, the Bicol region and parts of Mindanao. Though people heaved a collective sigh of relief, many couldn’t help but wonder how government would have coped with another disaster, considering that many of the victims of Ondoy and Pepeng have yet to recover from the devastation.

As vice presidential candidate Loren Legarda said: are we prepared for a tsunami? She correctly pointed out that “being prepared and reducing the vulnerability of people and communities is the best thing we can do to save lives… Better safe than sorry.” Loren would know whereof she speaks because she is the UN champion for disaster risk reduction in the Asia-Pacific region, pushing for the passage of a Senate bill that provides for climate change-related programs, not just the usual after-the-fact, post-disaster response.

Japan is probably the most earthquake-prone of all, but over the years, they have become prepared for such disasters with building codes conforming to strict standards meant to mitigate the effects of quakes. As a matter of fact, a 6.4 magnitude earthquake hit Japan earlier before the temblor in Chile, but damage has been reported as minimal. Japanese authorities also issued tsunami warnings after the earthquake in Chile triggered tidal waves, with thousands of people quickly evacuated. If anything, Japan is a good example of what disaster preparedness is all about.

Experts agree that preparedness is critical in saving lives, comparing the effects of the earthquakes in Haiti and Chile. Although the Haiti quake was 500 times lower than the quake in Chile, the devastation in the Caribbean country is epic in proportion, with buildings tumbling down like flimsy toys, burying thousands in the process. The answer, says an official of the National Earthquake Information Center of the United States Geological Survey, lies in the fact that Chile enforced strict building codes, requiring the adoption of modern, seismic-resistant building practices that have mitigated the risk for devastation. In short, the Chilean government was better prepared to face a disaster of such magnitude, in contrast with Haiti which had lax building codes and poorly-designed buildings made of substandard materials. As the USGS official said, “Earthquakes don’t kill people; buildings kill people.”

While Phivolcs (Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology) last year issued the reassurance that the country’s Valley Fault System continues to show no signs of physical activity, still, people can’t be too sure and would still need to prepare. A Metropolitan Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study conducted a few years ago said active phases of the West Valley Faults (also known as the Marikina Valley Faults) show the possible occurrence of a “big earthquake” that could trigger the collapse of thousands of buildings in many parts of Metro Manila including Quezon City, Marikina, Pasig, Mandaluyong, Makati, Muntinlupa and other areas further south. Obviously, people living in highly populated areas with substandard structures will be the most vulnerable.

In July 1990, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake killed an estimated 1,600 people and devastated areas in Nueva Ecija and parts of Northern Luzon and the Cordilleras. We don’t know just how ready the government is to face a similar disaster, but the preparations must be massive in proportion. The Philippines must learn from past disasters including the more recent ones in Haiti and Chile. Just as the sun will surely come down each day, you can be certain, because of climate change – a major disaster is sure to come – it is just a question of when.

* * *

Email: [email protected]