Idly wait no more

As governments take the limelight at the Copenhagen summit during the next weeks, it will ultimately be the economic order and businesses that will bear the brunt of any decision that will be arrived at. After all, the climate change that is happening is a function of lifestyles that economic activity today has created and perpetuated.

But first, a brief background on Copenhagen. The ongoing meeting in Scandinavia involves 192 countries who believe that the weather and climate changes that have been observed in recent years are a result of mankind’s actions – and that something must be done.

It all started in 1992, when 150 nations including the United States met during the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro and signed an agreement giving birth to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nothing decisive came up then, but this had started the Conference of the Parties or COPs. The meeting in Copenhagen is the 15th (COP15).

In 1997, a breakthrough during COP3 was established with the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. A total of 37 industrialized countries agreed to a binding target to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2012).

Kyoto non-believers

But because developing countries including China and India were exempted, the US and Australia held off from any real commitments. The other 184 countries that agreed to come under the Kyoto treaty became critical of the two big nations’ failure to commit, and simultaneously held alternate Meetings of Parties or MOPs during succeeding UNFCCCs.

MOPs were held to follow up on the Kyoto proceedings, while the COPs continued to convene with the objective of coming up with an acceptable and binding agreement on how climate change and global warming could be better managed.

In 2007, COP13 held in Bali set a deadline by 2009 to come up with a long-term agreement involving all nations including the US (Australia eventually signed the Kyoto treaty) that would address climate change. This is what COP15 in Copenhagen is all about.

Tick-tick-tick

At this stage, as pessimism still pervades the current summit rooms, the clock is running out for the world to get its act together.

As the fourth summary report issued in 2007 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (a collaborative undertaking of over 400 scientists all over the world started in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme) shows, the world’s condition is fast deteriorating.

Consider the following statements:

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.”

“Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases.”

“Global GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70 percent between 1970 and 2004.”

“Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.”

“Even if the concentrations of all GHGs and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected.”

“Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if GHG concentrations were to be stabilised.”

Tipping point

Is the world on an irreversible path towards destruction? Has mankind trespassed the tipping point? IPCC’s wise men seem reluctant to commit to this all-important question. What is more relevant, they contend, is to stop GHG emissions, and bring down global warming even if it takes decades.

As the world’s governments buckle down to come to an agreement as to how much they should commit to so that the global climate should stabilize to more manageable levels, each nation will be expected to draft more stringent national policies to address GHG emissions.

So far, majority of agreements between the business sector and government have not achieved significant emissions reductions beyond business as usual. There are better technologies evolving that have led to better emission reductions, but these are still few.

Our revered scientists tell us that the largest growth in GHG emissions between 1970 and 2004 came from energy supply, transport and industry, while those from residential and commercial buildings, forestry (including deforestation) and agriculture sectors grew at a slower rate.

As pressure to curb GHG spewed by industrial activity mounts, business will realize that old ways will no longer do. Either there is a radical way of reducing carbon dioxide in the norm of doing business, or there is a drastic cut in the amount of production.

Juan’s role

As business reviews the way to do its business, we ordinary mortals have to do our share in mitigating global climate change. Consumers can choose to significantly invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes.

Changes in lifestyle and behavior patterns too can contribute to climate change mitigation. And it is our responsibility to find out what changes are best suited to our individual circumstances.

More than two decades have passed since the first warning bells were heard about the dire effects of global warming, CO2 emissions, and greenhouse gases on our Earth. Since then, many unimagined environmental events, mostly devastating and disastrous, have happened to us.

We cannot idly wait.

Should you wish to share any insights, write me at Link Edge, 25th Floor, 139 Corporate Center, Valero Street, Salcedo Village, 1227 Makati City. Or e-mail me at [email protected]. For a compilation of previous articles, visit www.BizlinksPhilippines.net.