Economic data raise fresh hopes for global recovery

WASHINGTON (AP) – Just in time for Christmas, the fragile economic recovery is showing signs of strengthening: Consumers are spending, companies are rebuilding stockpiles and Chinese exports are mounting a comeback.

Data released last week eased some worries about Americans’ willingness to spend this holiday season. But stores remain worried that they may have to offer deeper discounts than planned, perhaps as early as this weekend, because of mediocre sales so far.

Most stores have reported lackluster results for the start of the holiday season, so the Commerce Department’s retail-sales report for November was encouraging. Sales rose 1.3 percent – the healthiest advance since August and more than double the increase economists had expected.

The government’s retail sales figures cover a broader category of spending, from home furnishings to electronics to gasoline station sales.

They also include online sales and results from electronics chains, two bright spots for the holiday season. And they take in Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer, which no longer reports monthly sales.

Most economists have been concerned that high unemployment could depress spending and drag down an economy struggling to emerge from the worst recession since the 1930s.

“The labor market is showing signs of stabilization, and this is giving consumers greater confidence to spend a little more than they were earlier this year,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York.

Also sparking optimism was a report that US businesses unexpectedly increased their inventories in October, halting a slide of 13 consecutive declines. The small gain raised hopes that businesses will restock their depleted shelves, boost factory production and help bolster the recovery.

Businesses boosted inventories 0.2 percent in October, better than the 0.3 percent drop economists had expected. Total business sales rose 1.1 percent, the fifth straight gain.

Signs of improvement were not limited to the American economy.

China’s trade figures for November were the best in a year, with exports falling just 1.2 percent from the same month of 2008. Retail sales, factory output and investment also saw robust growth last month.

Asian markets rallied as investors were heartened by the signs of rising global demand that could lift other economies in the region as consumers in the US and elsewhere begin spending more after months of holding back.

A sustained improvement in Chinese exports could add to pressure from the US, Europe and other trading partners for Beijing to let its currency, the yuan, rise. But Chinese officials have shown they are in no hurry to alter their policy of keeping the yuan weak to boost the competitiveness of China’s exports.

The November US retail sales report showed auto sales rose 1.6 percent, a solid performance after a 7.1 percent surge in October.

Excluding autos, retail sales rose 1.2 percent – triple the expected gain. And excluding higher gasoline prices, retail sales posted a solid 0.8 percent rise in November.