Behind every election, there is a silver lining

The race is on with all the major candidates from president to senator down to councilor filing their certificates of candidacy by midnight. For sure, candidates will try to cozy up to Filipino voters, promising anything and everything from food on the table to more infrastructure just to get the votes. Expect to be bombarded by all kinds of ads on television, radio and print especially now that the Supreme Court has lifted the ban on premature campaigning. The Comelec is understandably disappointed with the ruling since this may give undue advantage to candidates with more funds, and could encourage abuses on prescribed limits on campaign spending. But the silver lining behind this election is that there will be a lot of spending which hopefully will trickle down to the poorest of the poor. As BSP governor Say Tetangco said, about 0.5 percentage points are added to the country’s GDP every time an election is held.

The Omnibus Election Code prescribes that presidential candidates with political parties can spend as much as P15 per voter, while those running for the senate and local positions (under a party) can spend as much as P8 per voter. In 2007, there were 45 million registered voters – which means that senatorial candidates can spend as much as P360 million for their campaign, while the cap for presidential and vice presidential candidates is P675 million. But let’s face it – these figures do not reflect reality since election-related expenses certainly exceed the limits imposed by the Comelec.

Besides, there are those who argue that such caps are no longer applicable especially during this time when the cost of everything has almost doubled. According to studies from various groups such as Transparency and Accountability Network, Pera’t Pulitika, etc., the cost for running a presidential campaign can range from P2.5 billion to P5 billion. A senatorial run will require as much as P500 million, while a gubernatorial campaign – depending on the size of the voting constituency and the location – can go anywhere from P5 million to as much as half a billion pesos!

Most of the spending was concentrated on media ads, with television getting 72 percent of the total shares in 2007 obviously because this medium is believed to have the biggest impact and a wider reach. This was followed by radio which got 27 percent of the shares, while print got one percent. Even then, the amounts were enormous, with total estimates placed at P30 to P50 billion for network campaign ads alone in 2007. Not surprising since a primetime 30-second TV ad can cost as much as P500,000.

That’s not even counting the cost for communications, transportation, election paraphernalia, meals and other expenses. Even volunteers would require expenses, since they would have to be trained, they need to be issued cellphones or at least given loads; digital cameras or camcorders are needed and computers or laptops have to be provided for staffers to log in to social networking sites or upload updates regarding the latest activities or campaign sorties of candidates.

Aside from the printing, advertising, transportations and communication industries, other sectors also benefit, like the food and beverage industry for all those meals provided to volunteers, campaign organizers and supporters during sorties and on election day itself. After all, candidates will need barangay leaders and precinct coordinators who would require an allowance of up to P2,000 a month for three to six months. During election day itself, the fee for poll watchers range from P500 to P1,500 per day.

Total campaign expenses for a local position like mayor can reach P150 million – so why would anyone want to spend this much money for a job that would only give as little as P2 million accumulated salary over three years? Where will he get the money – and how does he intend to recoup his expenses? Of course, candidates rely on campaign contributions from supporters – but there are those who are concerned that the source for some of these contributions could be illegal drugs or kidnapping activities, since a spike in criminal activities has been noticed during election periods.

In any case, perhaps one good thing about having a multiparty system especially with four major candidates vying for the presidency is that more spending is generated, which does help boost economic growth and creates jobs no matter how temporary. The biggest spender so far is Nacionalista Party standard bearer Manny Villar who has an enormous war chest of as much as P7 billion so he is one of the few who will not need to bug people for contributions, although several businessmen including a mining magnate are supporting his bid. Besides, the family of Villar’s wife, Cynthia Aguilar, is also wealthy and as she emphatically pointed out – they have never lost an election and they certainly have no intention of losing this one. Loren Legarda is lucky to be the running mate of Manny Villar. The Nacionalista Party or Manny himself has offered to underwrite all her campaign expenses.

On the other hand, Noynoy Aquino is fortunate to have Mar Roxas as his running mate because the Araneta clan with its billions is prepared to help with his campaign expenses, although Noynoy also has his own resources and several businessmen who do not wish to be identified are quietly donating to his campaign kitty. Former president Joseph Estrada still has wealthy friends supporting him, among them a number of Chinese businessmen although Erap for sure also has his own resources. The same goes for Gilbert Teodoro who is not without his own means, aside from the fact that he has the machinery of the administration backing him.

Although elections have always been marred by violence, false hopes and promises and political divisiveness, the silver lining in this political exercise is the spending which stimulates the economy, with the money ultimately trickling down to the barangay/grassroots level.

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