LEVERKUSEN, Germany – The Philippines needs to brace for another possible rice supply shortage in the first half of 2010, triggered by a host of factors including the two typhoons that recently hit the country, an agriculture expert said Wednesday here on the sidelines of a press conference on the environment.
Achim Dobermann, deputy director general for research of the Laguna-based International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) also said that the supply problem would cause rice prices to go up next year, reminiscent of the 2008 global rice crisis.
“It is quite likely we will see another problem because of Ondoy and Pepeng,” Dobermann said.
He said that before the two typhoons struck, there was already a tight supply situation in India, a major rice-exporting country, because of a new government policy that provides rice subsidies to marginalized sectors.
“With India not being able to export and the Philippines with a tight supply problem, definitely, there is a very tight situation,” Dobermann said.
Vietnam, too, he added, is also experiencing rice supply problems because of the two typhoons that struck the Southeast Asian country after hitting Manila.
“If you take all these factors together, then you will have a very tight market and prices will rise,” Dobermann said, adding that this could happen “in the first half of next year.”
Despite the looming rice supply problem, Dobermann said Filipinos should not panic.
“Filipinos should not panic. Don’t stock up on rice because it creates anxiety,” he said.
Dobermann also said “Thailand is a great stability factor” because it can export large quantities of rice on the back of a government incentive to farmers to plant huge volumes of the staple.
The Philippine government, for its part, is buying 600,000 tons of rice in a Dec. 1 tender, the country’s biggest ever. The huge order will guard against potential supply shortfalls caused by the recent storms.
The storms damaged prime agricultural lands just before the start of the harvest season.
The winning rice seller would bring in the shipment between February and May next year, agriculture officials have said.
Dobermann is in Germany as one of the resource speakers for the culminating study tour here of delegates of the 2009 Bayer Young Environmental Envoy, a yearly project of Bayer, that brings together students from around the world. Bayer is a pharmaceutical and cropscience multinational firm.
This year’s program brought together more than 50 students from 19 countries including four students from the Philippines.