Ralph Recto has been fighting tooth and nail for the right to say we are not yet in recession even if the GDP growth has declined to less than a percentage point. But Dr. Ciel Habito, former NEDA Chief and current Ateneo economist, is of the opinion that the debate on whether or not recession has descended on our fair land is all meaningless.
“The true test of the economy’s well-being is whether the ranks of the unemployed and of the poor are diminishing, and people’s welfare are improving in general—and experience everywhere has shown that good GDP growth by itself is no guarantee of that,” Dr. Habito, wrote. “Indeed, it is not inconceivable that these positive developments could transpire even as aggregate GDP fails to grow, or even declines in a mild recession.”
We could quibble over whether growth is better reckoned year-on-year (whose main advantage lies in how it automatically avoids seasonal effects) or quarter-on-quarter with a seasonal correction, the Ateneo economist wrote. While our officially-announced growth numbers are based on the former (hence the still positive 0.4 percent growth announced for the first quarter), some countries choose to report GDP growth on the latter basis, Dr. Habito explains.
I attended a detailed briefing on the latest Pulse Asia survey and that point of Dr. Habito was evident in the first few Powerpoint slides. Of course it was no news to me to learn from Pulse Asia that the quality of life in our country has worsened. That was the main point their survey respondents told them as the pessimism, already notable in past surveys, worsened on the state of our quality of life in the next six months.
Since their survey population is a representative sample of our national population, it is horrible to learn that half of our people consider themselves losers. Some 65 percent say the quality of life is now worse. The new development is how the Visayans, who used to be more optimistic and supportive of Ate Glue, have now joined the rest of the country in taking this dim view of life in our beautiful country.
Pessimism has worsened in the Visayas, Pulse Asia reports, and it is bad as usual elsewhere in the country. Pessimism is highest in rural Visayas. I asked if this feeling is also true in Cebu and I was told that it is. The closure of export oriented businesses and manufacturing operations must have contributed to this feeling of hopelessness.
How are people coping? The survey revealed that they are cutting down on food, mainly rice. In the urban areas, they are cutting down on electricity consumption. In Mindanao, they are cutting down on cellphone loads.
What are people most worried about now? Mostly, people are concerned about their health. The wide publicity given to the A(H1N1) epidemic must have catapulted health as the people’s primary concern. Jobs, food affordability and school are the other main worries.
It is therefore not surprising that people are looking up to government to do something about inflation, which really translates to the affordability of basic needs. People also expect government to do something about the stagnant pay or salaries of workers, an expectation related to affordability of basic everyday needs.
Surprisingly, controlling graft and corruption is also now a top concern. Corruption is no longer just an issue for the NCR but is now a nationwide gut issue. People most likely blame rampant corruption as the reason why the country is now suffering economic difficulties.
Then there is the matter of creating enough jobs for people who want to work. Pulse Asia found out a large number of those employed are working in low quality jobs. That explains why a significant number are still looking for another job. Pulse Asia estimates underemployment to be 35 percent.
That’s precisely what Dr. Habito means. “it is not the growth number per se that ultimately matters, but it is how its outcome is felt by the general population in terms of their general well-being. Was the growth, or lack of it, accompanied by an ample increase in new jobs generated in the economy? Were the new jobs of good quality—i.e., stable, secure and well-paying?”
On the political front, it was most interesting to find out that Makati Mayor Jojo Binay has a national awareness level of 93 percent. What’s more, Jojo has a 56 percent approval rating. It is interest that Binay has a 58 percent “Big Trust” rating compared with Ate Glue’s 48 percent no trust and the First Gentleman’s 57 percent no trust rating.
In other words, Binay is a viable national candidate even if present presidential preference surveys show him in the single digits yet. He already has something to build on. It must be the simplicity of his campaign commercial that caught the public attention. Binay effectively promised in his campaign commercial to extend the benefits of his Makati constituents to the rest of the country.
It will still require a lot of work and hundreds of millions of pesos more in media advertising for Binay to join the elite club of Mar Roxas, Manny Villar, Chiz Escudero and Noli de Castro as presidential front runners. But the Makati Mayor is already among the winning circle of senatorial candidates. His presidential dream is no longer as impossible as many of us all thought some months ago.
The other interesting question in that Pulse Asia survey has to do with the value of political endorsements. I was surprised to learn that 34 percent of respondents will surely not vote for anyone endorsed by Manny Pacquiao… talk of a punch of death. But PacMan shouldn’t feel so bad because 33 percent of respondents said they will surely not vote for anyone endorsed by Ate Glue. FVR is another person candidates should not run to. Some 24 percent said they will surely not vote for those endorsed by FVR.
I thought this rejection of political endorsements is a good sign that voters are getting more mature and will not just vote for anyone on someone’s say so. Hopefully newspapers will not waste precious newsprint on photos of candidates posing like deodorant ad models as they are endorsed by one personality or another. Voter maturity is coming around slowly but it is coming around surely.
The way I see it, the survey seems to indicate that the country is all geared up to have a national election. It would be a serious mistake for anyone to think that they can play around with this expectation without risking a serious upheaval. Comelec must make sure it can conduct honest and clean elections, with or without computerization.
Greetings
I would just like to extend my best wishes to Foreign Secretary Bert Romulo and his wife, Lovely Tecson Romulo who celebrated their 46th wedding anniversary yesterday. Their children, Lupe, Mons, Roman, Berna and Erwin organized a grand celebration which included Holy Mass at the Sanctuario de San Antonio and a reception at the Manila Polo Club.
Tito Bert is a cousin of my late mother. In fact, the first time I visited my mother’s hometown of Camiling,Tarlac was during a family reunion to celebrate Tito Bert’s first election to the Senate after EDSA 86.
Marriages like this must be made in heaven!
Woman’s annual exam
Lal Chatlani sent this one.
A woman went to the doctor for her yearly physical. The nurse starts with certain basics.
“How much do you weigh?” she asks.
“135,” the woman answers. The nurse puts her on the scale. It turns out her weight is 180.
The nurse asks, “Your height?”
“5 foot 7,” she answers. The nurse checks and sees that she only measures 5’5.
She then takes her blood pressure and tells her it is very high.
“Of course it’s high!” the woman screams, “When I came in here I was tall and slender! Now I’m short and fat!”
Sounds like the state of our economy according to Ate Glue.
Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is bchanco@gmail.com