The government expects the country’s exports to slow down next year, with growth seen between negative two percent and four percent due to a global financial crisis.
Documents from the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) showed that under a worst-case scenario, the government expects exports to contract by two percent next year and to grow by four percent under the best scenario.
Under a medium-case scenario, the country’s merchandise exports may not grow at all next year, a sharp decline from the DBCC’s previous assumption of a seven percent export growth for 2009.
The three scenarios took into account varying economic growths, depending on developments in the global market.
The worst-case scenario expects a gross domestic product growth for 2009 of between three percent and four percent while the best scenario expects the economy to grow by 5.2 percent to 6.2 percent.
The medium-case scenario expects the economy to grow by 4.1 percent to 5.1 percent.
For 2008, the government expects exports to grow by as much as eight percent under the best-case scenario wherein the economy is expected to grow by five percent to 5.5 percent, under the latest economic assumptions.
Under the worst-case scenario, the government expects exports to grow by just two percent and the economy to grow by 3.8 percent to 4.3 percent, documents further showed.
Under a medium-case scenario, the government expects exports to grow by four percent and the economy by 4.4 percent to 4.9 percent.
The country’s exports in August rose even as earnings from the country’s top merchandise, electronic products, posted a slight decline.
The National Statistics Office (NSO) last week reported that export earnings rise 6.5 percent to $4.388 billion from a year ago, bringing the year’s seven-month period receipts to $34.23 billion or a 4.4-percent improvement.
The Philippines’ export markets include China, Hong Kong, The Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan and Thailand.