Worldwide personal computer (PC) shipments are projected to grow 15.7 percent in 2008 to reach 311 million units, according to IT research group International Data Corp. (IDC).
In a report, IDC said it expects growth to remain in double-digit rates through 2011, with growth above nine percent in 2012, boosting annual shipments to over 482 million units in 2012.
Despite continuing economic concerns in both mature and emerging regions, recent shipment volume and increasing competition in the rapidly growing low end of the portable PC market are expected to drive solid growth for the next few years, according to IDC’s worldwide quarterly PC tracker.
The second quarter of 2008 had a few surprises that impact the outlook for future growth, it noted. Although still expanding quickly, the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, saw volume increase less than 14 percent year-on-year after gains of near 20 percent or better for most of the past few years.
Rising energy costs, inflationary pressures, the Sichuan earthquake as well as the summer Olympics in China, all limited growth, it said.
Nevertheless, prospects for further decline in both the short and long term seem unlikely given economic policy changes to stimulate growth within Asia and in other regions, the still elevated economic growth in the region, and the rapid growth in PC adoption, IDC emphasized.
The latest projections for the region have growth rising in the next couple of years and remaining above 15 percent through 2011.
Offsetting slower growth in Asia, Western Europe saw growth jump 23 percent from just 12 percent in 2007 despite a slower economic outlook. Sparked by the wide appeal of low-cost portables such as the Asus Eee PC, Western Europe consumer portables grew 60 percent over the second quarter of 2007 and are expected to boost growth for the remainder of 2008.
Other regions also raised their outlook for the next several years, primarily based on the continued strength of portable PC adoption.
“Strong growth in portables and solid consumer demand in most regions despite economic pressures helped boost the outlook. The success of low-cost notebooks will lead to further erosion of average prices, but will boost volume as more consumers purchase PCs for the first time or as additional systems. Ongoing wireless infrastructure upgrades and the growing role of portable PCs as part of a digital lifestyle, rather than just computing device, will also sustain growth in both consumer and commercial segments,” it added.
IDC noted it continues to see a rapid transition to portable PCs around the world, even as economic pressures rise. “The trend reflects the increasing importance of computing, not just in the home or office, but as an integrated part of our lives. Falling prices, more design choice and competition for PC makers to capture this market continue to drive a rapid transition,” it explained.