Numbers don’t lie

At the economic briefing jointly hosted by the Manila Overseas Press Club (MOPC) and the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines (EJAP), GMA was undoubtedly in an upbeat mood. The numbers are clear – the economy is on an upswing – with recent developments enhancing the positive perception of the country as a feasible investment destination. There’s no question it’s been rough sailing for GMA and her administration, with tough and painful decisions often met with a lot of resistance at the onset. But as she pointed out, the country is better off today than it was six years ago. The 24 quarters of uninterrupted growth are certainly beginning to pay off, and GMA has the numbers to show for it. And as they say, numbers don’t lie.

As a matter of fact, even a cynic like MOPC chairman Tony Lopez gave GMA high marks, praising her to high heavens. (I kidded Tony that he almost sounded like Presidential Spokesman and Press Secretary Toting Bunye.) Some of the top business people such as Tessie Sy Coson, Ronnie Concepcion, Ambassador Donald Dee, Mike Varela and PCCI president Samie Lim were present during the briefing, where GMA revealed the five comprehensive areas to make the country globally competitive, the most telling of which is her plan to reduce the cost of electricity. Her revelation that the DOJ has come up with a ruling that economic zones have regulatory powers over operators would effectively lower the cost of electricity, which will enable factories to become more competitive in the region.

GMA also disclosed that in the next three years, one trillion pesos will be used for investments in infrastructure to support the growing economy and attract further investments. The plan to build six more major airports in key regions in the country will certainly help. GMA admitted that "technology is the foundation of future economic development," and to start with, P200 million will be released for masters and PhDs for science and engineering.

Newly-designated Presidential chief of staff Joey Salceda in his presentation highlighted the economic performance of the GMA administration in the last five years, and said it’s on track, especially with the goal of jobs creation. In 2005 alone, three million fulltime jobs were created, she pointed out. GMA has set a target of six to 10 million jobs by 2010, and so far, the accomplishment rate is 97 percent for the yearly target of 1.2 million per year.

Joey also pointed out that compared to the past five administrations, GMA’s term so far has registered the lowest inflation rate at 5.5 percent (with a parenthetical note explaining it was 4.4 percent prior to the oil spike), compared to a high of 10.4 percent during the administration of Cory Aquino. Regarding the National Government deficit, there has been a marked reduction with P147 billion in 2001 to P62.2 billion in 2006. By 2010, the projected reduction of the national budget is by 46 percent, or P46.3 billion.

"After six years of getting it right, now it is three years of getting it done," with plan "789" revealed as a key strategy in achieving a three-year surge in the country’s GDP growth. Simply put, the plan is a gradual acceleration from six percent to seven percent in 2007, eight in 2008, and nine percent in 2009, and so on. This will be complemented by "out-of-the-box strategies like rebalancing resource allocation, tightening of policy cohesion and more "meso-policy" like the opening of the NAIA 3, hopefully this March.

I used to tell the President on occasional private meetings that luck seemed to be with her. But now, it’s beginning to look like luck and Divine Providence are with her at the same time, because the economy has never been any better. In the next couple of months, the stock market is set to break the 3,500 mark registered 10 years ago. Business people are positioning in anticipation of a sustained growth – which are clear signs that the country is really on the verge of an economic takeoff. All of these numbers have been validated by a reputable foreign investment firm based out of Singapore, whom I totally trust.

But as pointed out by Consumer Oil Price Watch chair Ronnie Concepcion, who sat with us at the presidential table, it’s really the population that is our problem. Ronnie has been one of those who had been strongly advocating for a sound population management policy. While it is true that numbers don’t lie, the huge number of Filipinos especially in the lowest sector will eat up our resources faster than we can replenish or produce them.

The president agreed that we have to properly manage population growth. It will be a tough job trying to convince families about the need to manage the number of people in their household, but this is necessary. People should realize the folly of having more children than they can afford to support. To start with, perhaps there should be more effort to get couples to use "scientific natural methods" instead of just relying on traditional but unsure family planning methods approved by the Church. A sound population management policy is really the bottom line if we are to sustain the economic growth being experienced today. If we can reduce population growth in the lower sector of society within the next 10 years, I can say with certainty that this country will not only take off, but shoot up like a rocket. Then we will begin to see most Filipinos living abroad coming back and investing in this country once again.

* * *

Email: [email protected]