Elections: Good or bad for economy?

All things considered, the elections this May should be good for the country and the economy. But, and it is a big BUT, the election process must be seen as CREDIBLE. It is not enough for candidates of Ate Glue to win, as Palace apologists say, in order to inspire a business boom. Because of Garci and related political misfortunes, she must go out of her way to convince the worst skeptics that the May polls will be fair and square.

With a lot of seemingly good news about the economy in recent weeks, there are those who are wondering if all these will just be wasted with the election season. In other words, another aborted economic take off. I even read fears that the peso may slide back to P51 to the US dollar or worse as the country starts washing its very dirty political linens in public.

I don’t think this fear is justified. On the contrary, we need this election to re-establish some sense of political stability. We lost that in the past few years after the credibility of the last presidential election was seriously questioned, and Ate Glue failed to respond well to the series of crisis situations that followed. It is hardly reassuring to investors that the legitimacy of her regime is further put to question as survey after survey by reputable opinion polls show a majority of Filipinos wants her out of office.

Regardless of who wins this May, provided there is general agreement that the process is credible, the country wins. And the feel good halo effect of a properly conducted election will no doubt cover the economic sector as well. The upward trend of the stock market, real estate and the peso would then be sustained by good news this May.

But of course, Ate Glue must be ready to pay the price for a credible election. That’s one thing that’s difficult to predict. We can only wait and see. First of all, she needs to appoint a super credible person to fill in the vacancy in the Comelec. Chairman Ben Abalos is a friend of mine, but unfortunately, he must face the reality that he is far from credible as head of Comelec. His bad reputation may be an injustice to him but that’s the reality. This is why it is vitally important to have as many commissioners who are not tainted by perceived sins of the past.

If I were Ate Glue, I would ask the opposition, the CBCP, the Makati business groups to nominate that person. The worse thing she could do is appoint someone like Garci all over again. She should be intelligent enough to realize from experience that appointing another Garci would do her no good.

The next thing that’s imperative for Ate Glue is for her not to be seen as misusing public funds to support her party. No more JocJoc scandals. Or misuse of our road users tax. Every Filipino knows that sitting politicians misuse public funds to support their candidates. But we are still shocked at the increased brazenness by which they are doing this sort of thing in the recent past.

Misuse of public funds for election purposes will also threaten the good news of fiscal responsibility that is the basis of today’s series of good news about the economy. We are not yet out of the woods, deficit wise. Any hint that fiscal responsibility is playing second fiddle to political survival this May will mean credit rating downgrades and the loss of investor confidence.

In the past it had been said that elections are good for our economy because it provides purchasing power to the masa. Money trickles down faster to the voters who eagerly sell their votes to the highest bidder. I don’t think this is still true. And that’s because politicians no longer buy votes retail but wholesale in terms of election returns at the town or provincial level. Fewer people benefit from such transactions so that there is no infusion of mass purchasing power that could drive the economy.

What we have going for us is that a lot of investors, local and foreign, have become more educated about our elections. They no longer panic and withdraw investments at the slightest political rumble. If by some miracle or determination to do the right thing, we manage to conduct a clean and credible election, we can expect the economy to do even better than it is doing now.

That’s, as I said, a terribly big IF.

Not for sale

There have been pretty stupid rumors circulating over the past few days that The Philippine Star is being sold by the Belmonte family, following the death of our publisher, Max Soliven. Unfortunately, a columnist of another paper dignified the rumor by suggesting that the Belmontes are just waiting for more money to be offered.

Well, I have just talked with Miguel Belmonte, our president, and he has emphatically denied the rumor. Actually, even while Max was still alive, The Star was being managed actively and competently by the young Belmontes, who clearly have journalism’s genetic imprint in them. Their grandfather was Go Puan Seng who owned the pre-martial law Fookien Times. And, of course, their mother, Betty Go-Belmonte, co-founded The Philippine Star. Their father, Mayor Sonny Belmonte, is a dyed-in-the-wool journalist himself, starting his career as a police reporter in the Manila Chronicle.

The way I see it, Miguel, Isaac and Kevin are very comfortable running this business from a career perspective as well as a treasured family legacy. Miguel has in fact, been on an expansion mode, buying regional newspapers in the recent past. Now that they have an even freer hand to run the business in this information age, expect even more new and exciting developments in both the printed and online editions.

Noli the Veep

Vice President Noli de Castro wrote to clarify observations I made in last Monday’s column.

You mentioned the relocation of the railroad settlers. I would like to point out that last year alone we relocated 12,316 families from the railroad tracks in Bulacan to their permanent homes in various resettlement sites. In a period of two years (since 2004) we have relocated a total of 29,429 families from the Northrail segment stretching from Caloocan to Bulacan.

From Southrail, we have relocated 7,500 families. They have been granted shelter security, as well as the necessary assistance to build decent homes and start a new life. Government investment in the relocation program, thus far, has reached P4.4 billion. This is necessary to the pave the way for the development of the Rail Linkage Project.

What you refer to as a "humble project" is, in fact, the most massive relocation project ever to be undertaken by the Philippine government to date. As far as I know, there has been no administration before me that has implemented a project of this magnitude.

Notwithstanding, we have carried this out successfully and peacefully, with none of the violence that we are used to seeing in such scenarios. This is because unlike previous approaches and strategies, I made sure that we pursue an in-city/in-town relocation (in the case of the Valenzuela and Bulacan segments) or near-town, if in-city is not possible (as in the case of the Makati and Manila segments).  

I admit that there is still a lot to be done because, having adopted a beneficiary-led approach, we could only provide incremental development given the funding requirement. This was explained to the beneficiaries, who otherwise would have had the option to relocate to our existing inventory of completed relocation projects in Bulacan and Rizal.

I would also like to correct your assertion (based only on the video footage that you saw) that the relocation of informal settlers, specifically from Makati to Cabuyao, Laguna, was "badly managed". The dengue outbreak in the Southville resettlement site was indeed tragic, but it was not a result of what you called "the despicable conditions" in the community.

The relocatees are living in concrete houses on the lots awarded to them, which is already a great improvement over their circumstances in the railroad slums they used to live in. We are rushing to complete the installation of necessary services and facilities in every home, but it has not been without challenges.

The installation of individual electrical connections by Meralco, for instance, was set back by super typhoon Milenyo. Regarding the dengue outbreak (which affected the entire Laguna province), we reacted promptly and rationally as soon as it was ascertained, just as we have been responding to every problem that arises in all the resettlement sites.

I know you mean well, and I appreciate your taking interest in my chances in 2010. But that is a few years away, and I am faced with a huge responsibility right now, including completing the relocation of 50,000 more families from the Northrail and Southrail. In this, I can certainly use more help from other sectors – and a little more fairness from our critics. In the meantime, I shall continue to work–and work quietly. That is one lesson I learned since I became Vice President and HUDCC Chairman.  

New Year wishes

I got this New Year wishes from good friend Dr. Ricky Soler.

My wish for you is to be continuously reincarnated as an egg. This way, you’ll get laid every morning, get eaten every day and get hard in three minutes. Forever.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]