Market likely to extend gains this week — analysts

The stock market is likely to extend gains this week on the back of a stronger peso, falling interest rates, an improving fiscal situation, and the anticipated strong third quarter earnings results of blue chip stocks, analysts said.

They added, however, that most issues are long due for profit-taking.

The market has been on an upswing for 11 consecutive days, pulling it further away from the 2,700 index level and nearer the 2,800 resistance mark. The market rally is the longest recorded in seven years. In 1999, the market surged for 13 straight days from March 30 to April 20.

Last Friday, the benchmark 30-company Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) rose 45.08 points or 1.7 percent to 2,766.86, its best finish since July 1, 1997 and 2.4 percent higher week-on-week. Leading the market were property counters, rising 1.9 percent and the services sector growing by 2.8 percent.

Erwin Balita of AB Capital Securities Inc. said the earnings results of big-ticket companies such as Ayala Corp., Ayala Land, Globe Telecom and PLDT could spur buying in the stockmarket.

He said the listing debut of Alliance Tuna International on Wednesday may also provide interest given its relatively small offer size of P181 million. The company is offering a total of 134 million shares at P1.35 each which is 10.3 times its earnings forecast this year.

On the other hand, BPI Securities said the expected test of the 2,800 resistance may prove to be the trigger for the market’s decline. "However, continued inflows and positive sentiments should buoy the market and keep the correction shallow," the company said.

Stock portal 2tradeasia.com said the market may trade within the 2,760 to 2,780 range as investors await fresh news, although there might be spillover buying fuelled by an expected kick in the third quarter interim performance from selected stocks.

2tradeasia.com said consumer spending is seen bustling well towards the last stretch of 2006.

The lack of a significant push in crude oil demand – aided in part by China’s move to put a cap on aggressive expansion for its own economy – should likewise help keep consumer prices intact for the remainder of 2006.

AB Capital Securities research head Jovis Vistan said that with the continued strong performance of the market, the anticipated yearend rally may not be as strong as the previous years since there have been a lot of money already invested in the stock market and that some traders may already be considering taking profits.

"The main index’s technical indicators have already hit overbought levels last Oct. 25 and could turn down anytime. Although there is still no sell signal being generated, we believe that the PSEi maybe forming a near term high.

If the market does not reverse here as momentum has stayed exceptionally strong, it could be on track for the next psychological resistance at the 2,900 mark," said Vistan.